Metz: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Adrien Gobat

13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Adrien Gobat (52%) · Adrien Gobat at 82¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Buvaysar Gadamauri19¢Adrien Gobat81¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrien Gobat

Consensus Traders

Adrien Gobat 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$613.55

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 81.5¢

+48% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrien Gobat at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrien Gobat

13 of 25 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buvaysar Gadamauri19%

Adrien Gobat82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrien Gobat13 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,866

Combined PnL+$704.69

Buvaysar Gadamauri12 traders

Total Value$738.72

Total Shares2,509

Combined PnL-$91.14

Adrien Gobat — 52%Buvaysar Gadamauri — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Adrien Gobat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrien Gobat 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuvaysar Gadamauri 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrien Gobat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Adrien Gobat 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Adrien Gobatavg 37.4¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$622.05	38% 18-30 (48)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Adrien Gobatavg 62¢	$878.64	$1.1K	+$194.18	48% 630-669 (1299)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Adrien Gobat leg	Adrien Gobatavg 50¢	$525	$619.5	+$94.5
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 50¢	$525	$430.5	-$94.5
38 38791873984189	Adrien Gobatavg 77.4¢	$1.3K	$757.6	-$289.65	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
TH thirdt1me	Adrien Gobatavg 65.1¢	$661.04	$648.53	+$172.32	48% 372-408 (780)
BA babybells	Adrien Gobatavg 68.2¢	$429.22	$435.05	+$5.83	34% 268-521 (789)
EF efntrickCTR	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 62.4¢	$470.23	$308.78	-$161.46	46% 113-135 (248)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 28¢	$310.64	$233.43	-$38.24	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
└ Adrien Gobat leg	Adrien Gobatavg 69.9¢	$104.43	$122.5	+$23.4
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 28¢	$172.58	$110.93	-$61.65
MA MadridTime	Adrien Gobatavg 81¢	$279.02	$218.83	-$17.86	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 59.6¢	$116.84	$94.36	-$22.48	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Buvaysar Gadamauri leg	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 59.6¢	$102.85	$70.78	-$32.07
└ Adrien Gobat leg	Adrien Gobatavg 35¢	$13.99	$23.58	+$9.59
PA pauleta23<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 69.7¢	$78.63	$94.19	+$15.56	43% 560-757 (1317)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 24.6¢	$188.49	$80.75	+$109.03	36% 252-449 (701)
PA Pan9XCTR	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 62.2¢	$114.73	$75.66	-$39.07	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
LI Limousin<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 78.3¢	$74.98	$69.46	-$5.52	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 22¢	$51.68	$56.5	+$4.82	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 22¢	$55	$51.25	-$3.75	41% 725-1037 (1762)
XU xutuu<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 73¢	$50	$50.34	+$0.34	68% 38-18 (56)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 24¢	$49.1	$49.2	+$0.1	46% 472-559 (1031)
dips.CTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 23.3¢	$27.34	$29.93	+$2.59	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 21.9¢	$33.06	$27.14	-$5.92	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 17¢	$24.72	$26.12	+$1.4	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
tradecraft<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 67¢	$23.55	$25.31	+$1.76	34% 465-896 (1361)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 23.6¢	$18.9	$20.4	+$1.5	66% 779-409 (1188)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Adrien Gobatavg 61.7¢	$14.8	$19.68	+$4.88	33% 300-622 (922)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 23.3¢	$13.02	$12.6	-$0.42	46% 877-1027 (1904)

0000.

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$622.05

Record

38%

18-30 (48)

CandleHammerDrums

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$878.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$194.18

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

NotJumpARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Adrien Gobat$52550¢+$94.5

Buvaysar Gadamauri$52550¢-$94.5

38791873984189

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$1,277.4

Value

$757.6

PnL

-$289.65

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

thirdt1me

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$661.04

Value

$648.53

PnL

+$172.32

Record

48%

372-408 (780)

babybells

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$429.22

Value

$435.05

PnL

+$5.83

Record

34%

268-521 (789)

efntrickCTR

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$470.23

Value

$308.78

PnL

-$161.46

Record

46%

113-135 (248)

VenusianARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$310.64

Value

$233.43

PnL

-$38.24

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Both legs:

Adrien Gobat$104.4369.9¢+$23.4

Buvaysar Gadamauri$172.5828¢-$61.65

MadridTime

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$279.02

Value

$218.83

PnL

-$17.86

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$116.84

Value

$94.36

PnL

-$22.48

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Buvaysar Gadamauri$102.8559.6¢-$32.07

Adrien Gobat$13.9935¢+$9.59

pauleta23<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$78.63

Value

$94.19

PnL

+$15.56

Record

43%

560-757 (1317)

thestingsnakeCTR

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$188.49

Value

$80.75

PnL

+$109.03

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

Pan9XCTR

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$114.73

Value

$75.66

PnL

-$39.07

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Limousin<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$74.98

Value

$69.46

PnL

-$5.52

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$51.68

Value

$56.5

PnL

+$4.82

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$55

Value

$51.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

xutuu<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$50

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$0.34

Record

68%

38-18 (56)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$49.1

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

dips.CTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$27.34

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$2.59

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$33.06

Value

$27.14

PnL

-$5.92

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$24.72

Value

$26.12

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

tradecraft<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$23.55

Value

$25.31

PnL

+$1.76

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$18.9

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$1.5

Record

66%

779-409 (1188)

BillBenter2026<$100

Adrien Gobat

Invested

$14.8

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$4.88

Record

33%

300-622 (922)

smithagentCTR<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$13.02

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.42

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

Research grade

NeutralAdrien Gobat at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Adrien Gobat

13 of 25 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Adrien Gobat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrien Gobat 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuvaysar Gadamauri 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrien Gobat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Adrien Gobat 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrien Gobat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.