Helsinki: Aaron Funk vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Carlo Alberto Caniato (44%) · Carlo Alberto Caniato at 90¢ · $989 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Carlo Alberto Caniato
9
Carlo Alberto Caniato 44%
$989.03
$1.3
92.7¢ → 89.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarlo Alberto Caniato at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Carlo Alberto Caniato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 93¢ | $741.21 | $709.52 | -$31.69 | 46% 607-722 (1329) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 10¢ | $81.98 | $86.26 | +$4.28 | 45% 90-110 (200) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 7.8¢ | $48.22 | $65.03 | +$16.81 | 49% 4576-4835 (9411) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $45.5 | +$1 | 52% 207-188 (395) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 10¢ | $25 | $26.25 | +$1.25 | 53% 1840-1607 (3447) |
EF efntrickCTR | Aaron Funkavg 10¢ | $244.5 | $24.2 | +$4.7 | 45% 110-134 (244) |
PA Pan9X | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 89.2¢ | $129.16 | $18.31 | +$3.72 | 50% 2155-2179 (4334) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 89.5¢ | $8.95 | $9.1 | +$0.15 | 43% 845-1130 (1975) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Aaron Funkavg 7¢ | $3.78 | $4.86 | +$1.08 | 41% 1163-1648 (2811) |
Invested
$741.21
Value
$709.52
PnL
-$31.69
Record
46%
607-722 (1329)
Invested
$81.98
Value
$86.26
PnL
+$4.28
Record
45%
90-110 (200)
Invested
$48.22
Value
$65.03
PnL
+$16.81
Record
49%
4576-4835 (9411)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
207-188 (395)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
53%
1840-1607 (3447)
Invested
$244.5
Value
$24.2
PnL
+$4.7
Record
45%
110-134 (244)
Invested
$129.16
Value
$18.31
PnL
+$3.72
Record
50%
2155-2179 (4334)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.15
Record
43%
845-1130 (1975)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$1.08
Record
41%
1163-1648 (2811)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
Carlo Alberto Caniato — $709.52
AnonymousUsername
CTRAaron Funk — $86.26
Flaznorp
CTRAaron Funk — $65.03
Eulhunter
Carlo Alberto Caniato — $45.5
VeryLucky888
CTRAaron Funk — $26.25
efntrick
CTRAaron Funk — $24.2
Pan9X
Carlo Alberto Caniato — $18.31
ameisgoat11
Carlo Alberto Caniato — $9.1
sentrio
CTRAaron Funk — $4.86