Villa Maria: Santiago De la Fuente vs Ryo Tabata
18 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Ryo Tabata (86%) · Ryo Tabata at 86¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Ryo Tabata
21
Ryo Tabata 86%
1 arb excluded
$12.3K
-$572.94
56.6¢ → 86.1¢
+52% since entry · 18 traders
Research grade
NeutralRyo Tabata at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Ryo Tabataavg 64.7¢ | $4.4K | $5.0K | +$610.01 | 58% 48522-34672 (83194) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Ryo Tabataavg 41¢ | $948.33 | $1.8K | +$808.82 | 50% 19821-20164 (39985) |
38 38791873984189 | Ryo Tabataavg 68.8¢ | $4.7K | $1.5K | $-1.9K | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Ryo Tabataavg 36.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$150.81 | 48% 1153-1269 (2422) |
NO NotJump | Ryo Tabataavg 69.3¢ | $973.65 | $967.54 | -$6.12 | 44% 9904-12850 (22754) |
FL Flaznorp | Ryo Tabataavg 83.6¢ | $1.1K | $912.62 | -$157.51 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR | Santiago De la Fuenteavg 35.5¢ | $578.1 | $341.63 | -$236.48 | 52% 5708-5272 (10980) |
PA pauleta23 | Ryo Tabataavg 85.6¢ | $99.99 | $102.85 | +$2.86 | 66% 23638-11934 (35572) |
TO topdogbigboi | Ryo Tabataavg 36¢ | $45.25 | $101.46 | +$56.21 | 47% 10059-11176 (21235) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 47¢ | $42.23 | $91.96 | +$49.73 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
EU EulhunterARB<$100 | Santiago De la Fuenteavg 25¢ | $60.18 | $47.04 | -$13.14 | 54% 5910-4956 (10866) |
| └ Ryo Tabata leg | Ryo Tabataavg 47.4¢ | $13.76 | $25.67 | +$11.9 | |
| └ Santiago De la Fuente leg | Santiago De la Fuenteavg 25¢ | $46.42 | $21.38 | -$25.05 | |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 66.8¢ | $56.75 | $42.67 | -$14.08 | 57% 18874-13974 (32848) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $34.5 | +$1 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Santiago De la Fuenteavg 12.7¢ | $108.18 | $30.88 | +$4.38 | 60% 4155-2786 (6941) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 44.2¢ | $15.13 | $27.4 | +$0.8 | 61% 13851-8756 (22607) |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Ryo Tabataavg 76.9¢ | $640.1 | $24.92 | +$41.59 | 66% 585-304 (889) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Santiago De la Fuenteavg 7.1¢ | $24.08 | $24.76 | +$0.68 | 54% 58154-50376 (108530) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 95¢ | $26.8 | $20.18 | -$6.62 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 48¢ | $7.2 | $11.99 | +$0.07 | 56% 7468-5986 (13454) |
 TRCM<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $8.8 | +$3.7 | 55% 3977-3206 (7183) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 61¢ | $11.1 | $8.8 | +$2.9 | 86% 6406-1083 (7489) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 95¢ | $5.75 | $5.04 | +$2.73 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
Invested
$4,363.03
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$610.01
Record
58%
48522-34672 (83194)
Invested
$948.33
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$808.82
Record
50%
19821-20164 (39985)
Invested
$4,654.21
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Invested
$1,179.09
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$150.81
Record
48%
1153-1269 (2422)
Invested
$973.65
Value
$967.54
PnL
-$6.12
Record
44%
9904-12850 (22754)
Invested
$1,070.13
Value
$912.62
PnL
-$157.51
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$578.1
Value
$341.63
PnL
-$236.48
Record
52%
5708-5272 (10980)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$102.85
PnL
+$2.86
Record
66%
23638-11934 (35572)
Invested
$45.25
Value
$101.46
PnL
+$56.21
Record
47%
10059-11176 (21235)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$42.23
Value
$91.96
PnL
+$49.73
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$60.18
Value
$47.04
PnL
-$13.14
Record
54%
5910-4956 (10866)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.75
Value
$42.67
PnL
-$14.08
Record
57%
18874-13974 (32848)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
Invested
$108.18
Value
$30.88
PnL
+$4.38
Record
60%
4155-2786 (6941)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$27.4
PnL
+$0.8
Record
61%
13851-8756 (22607)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18Invested
$640.1
Value
$24.92
PnL
+$41.59
Record
66%
585-304 (889)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.08
Value
$24.76
PnL
+$0.68
Record
54%
58154-50376 (108530)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.8
Value
$20.18
PnL
-$6.62
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
7468-5986 (13454)
TRCM<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$3.7
Record
55%
3977-3206 (7183)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$2.9
Record
86%
6406-1083 (7489)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$2.73
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Ryo Tabata — $5.0K
omnibus-076daa
Ryo Tabata — $1.8K
38791873984189
Ryo Tabata — $1.5K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Ryo Tabata — $1.3K
NotJump
Ryo Tabata — $967.54
Flaznorp
Ryo Tabata — $912.62
CandleHammerDrums
CTRSantiago De la Fuente — $341.63
pauleta23
Ryo Tabata — $102.85
topdogbigboi
Ryo Tabata — $101.46
VeryLucky888
Ryo Tabata — $91.96