Lima: Santiago De La Fuente vs Max Alcala Gurri

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Max Alcala Gurri (75%) · Max Alcala Gurri at 95¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18

Santiago De La Fuente6¢Max Alcala Gurri94¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Alcala Gurri

Consensus Traders

Max Alcala Gurri 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$86.32

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 94.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Santiago De La Fuente6%

Max Alcala Gurri95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Alcala Gurri9 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,201

Combined PnL+$91.25

Santiago De La Fuente3 traders

Total Value$115.49

Total Shares1,213

Combined PnL-$4.93

Max Alcala Gurri — 75%Santiago De La Fuente — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Max Alcala Gurriavg 88¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$99.15	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
38 38791873984189	Max Alcala Gurriavg 91¢	$579.51	$569.87	-$9.64	48% 1322-1438 (2760)
RN1	Max Alcala Gurriavg 91¢	$547.3	$544.29	-$3.01	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 89.6¢	$205.88	$216.37	+$10.49	51% 1833-1786 (3619)
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 89.6¢	$116.45	$115	-$1.45
└ Santiago De La Fuente leg	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 10.1¢	$89.44	$101.38	+$11.94
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Max Alcala Gurriavg 90.7¢	$211.59	$212.83	+$1.25	56% 3842-3016 (6858)
MA MadridTime	Max Alcala Gurriavg 93¢	$134.47	$135.19	+$0.72	31% 378-844 (1222)
VeryLucky888<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 89¢	$89	$90.5	+$1.5	51% 446-421 (867)
BA babybells<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 90.8¢	$65.06	$65.55	+$0.49	23% 120-405 (525)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 11¢	$45.43	$47.49	+$2.06	30% 373-863 (1236)
PA Pan9X<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 89¢	$40.05	$40.73	+$0.68	48% 662-709 (1371)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 9.6¢	$45	$39.67	-$5.33	19% 147-613 (760)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Santiago De La Fuenteavg 9¢	$30	$28.33	-$1.67	24% 119-370 (489)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 89.6¢	$12.77	$12.9	+$0.12	32% 284-613 (897)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$4,003.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$99.15

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

38791873984189

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$579.51

Value

$569.87

PnL

-$9.64

Record

48%

1322-1438 (2760)

RN1

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$547.3

Value

$544.29

PnL

-$3.01

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$205.88

Value

$216.37

PnL

+$10.49

Record

51%

1833-1786 (3619)

Both legs:

Max Alcala Gurri$116.4589.6¢-$1.45

Santiago De La Fuente$89.4410.1¢+$11.94

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$211.59

Value

$212.83

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

3842-3016 (6858)

MadridTime

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$134.47

Value

$135.19

PnL

+$0.72

Record

31%

378-844 (1222)

VeryLucky888<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$89

Value

$90.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

446-421 (867)

babybells<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$65.06

Value

$65.55

PnL

+$0.49

Record

23%

120-405 (525)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$45.43

Value

$47.49

PnL

+$2.06

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

Pan9X<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$40.05

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$45

Value

$39.67

PnL

-$5.33

Record

19%

147-613 (760)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Santiago De La Fuente

Invested

$30

Value

$28.33

PnL

-$1.67

Record

24%

119-370 (489)

ameisgoat11<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$12.77

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

32%

284-613 (897)

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Alcala Gurri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.