BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (14%) · Taylor Fritz at 75¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Taylor Fritz
7
Taylor Fritz 14%
$5.9K
-$5.62
Research grade
NeutralTaylor Fritz at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Taylor Fritz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Taylor Fritzavg 75¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$32.3 | 54% 1629-1388 (3017) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $1.0K | $612 | +$17.5 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $227.25 | $231.8 | +$4.55 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
NM NM-PCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $112.87 | $115.13 | +$2.26 | 60% 3442-2335 (5777) |
GC GC-PCTR | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $110.19 | $112.39 | +$2.2 | 16% 66-347 (413) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $7.25 | $7.4 | +$0.15 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 25¢ | $1.03 | $1.05 | +$0.02 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$4,844.49
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$32.3
Record
54%
1629-1388 (3017)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,007
Value
$612
PnL
+$17.5
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$227.25
Value
$231.8
PnL
+$4.55
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$112.87
Value
$115.13
PnL
+$2.26
Record
60%
3442-2335 (5777)
Invested
$110.19
Value
$112.39
PnL
+$2.2
Record
16%
66-347 (413)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.