Matsuyama: Jay Dylan Friend vs Yusuke Kusuhara

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Dylan Friend (53%) · Jay Dylan Friend at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Jay Dylan Friend86¢Yusuke Kusuhara14¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jay Dylan Friend

Consensus Traders

Jay Dylan Friend 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$36.92

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 85.5¢

-9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJay Dylan Friend at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jay Dylan Friend86%

Yusuke Kusuhara14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jay Dylan Friend8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,513

Combined PnL-$46.97

Yusuke Kusuhara7 traders

Total Value$88.12

Total Shares1,635

Combined PnL+$10.05

Jay Dylan Friend — 53%Yusuke Kusuhara — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yusuke Kusuhara) and the top 1000 (4 on Jay Dylan Friend) disagree here.

whaleJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJay Dylan Friend 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYusuke Kusuhara 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jay Dylan Friend 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Jay Dylan Friendavg 95.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$56.37	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
LI LightParadox	Jay Dylan Friendavg 94.1¢	$993.96	$1.0K	+$10.09	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jay Dylan Friendavg 93.5¢	$624.03	$583.47	-$3.33	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
TH thestingsnake	Jay Dylan Friendavg 92.2¢	$470.82	$463.58	-$7.24	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 5.2¢	$264.11	$343.23	+$102.24	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
└ Yusuke Kusuhara leg	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 5.2¢	$147.22	$259.16	+$107.45
└ Jay Dylan Friend leg	Jay Dylan Friendavg 96.4¢	$89.28	$84.07	-$5.21
MA MadridTime	Jay Dylan Friendavg 94.8¢	$297.55	$299.3	+$1.75	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
FL Flaznorp	Jay Dylan Friendavg 94.6¢	$180.67	$189.8	+$9.13	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 96.8¢	$653.46	$118.96	+$14.66	53% 851-753 (1604)
└ Jay Dylan Friend leg	Jay Dylan Friendavg 96.8¢	$98.97	$92.58	-$26.16
└ Yusuke Kusuhara leg	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 3.8¢	$10.65	$26.38	+$40.82
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 94¢	$46.98	$45.98	-$1	57% 20238-15055 (35293)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 4.6¢	$26.41	$35.6	+$9.19	58% 212-156 (368)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 5.4¢	$27	$21.4	-$4.46	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 2.9¢	$10.61	$20.27	+$9.66	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
0xheavy888<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 94¢	$16.17	$15.2	+$0	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
dips.CTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 13¢	$6.5	$4.73	-$1.78	46% 12241-14177 (26418)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 6¢	$75.27	$4.52	+$0	46% 30595-35687 (66282)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 4.7¢	$3.5	$1.35	-$2.15	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yusuke Kusuharaavg 5¢	$0.67	$0.25	-$0.42	54% 10229-8705 (18934)

Venusian

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$1,721.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$56.37

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

LightParadox

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$993.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.09

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

omnibus-076daa

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$624.03

Value

$583.47

PnL

-$3.33

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

thestingsnake

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$470.82

Value

$463.58

PnL

-$7.24

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$264.11

Value

$343.23

PnL

+$102.24

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Both legs:

Yusuke Kusuhara$147.225.2¢+$107.45

Jay Dylan Friend$89.2896.4¢-$5.21

MadridTime

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$297.55

Value

$299.3

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Flaznorp

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$180.67

Value

$189.8

PnL

+$9.13

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$653.46

Value

$118.96

PnL

+$14.66

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

Both legs:

Jay Dylan Friend$98.9796.8¢-$26.16

Yusuke Kusuhara$10.653.8¢+$40.82

BillBenter2026<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$46.98

Value

$45.98

PnL

-$1

Record

57%

20238-15055 (35293)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$26.41

Value

$35.6

PnL

+$9.19

Record

58%

212-156 (368)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$27

Value

$21.4

PnL

-$4.46

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$10.61

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$9.66

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

0xheavy888<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$16.17

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

dips.CTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$6.5

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$1.78

Record

46%

12241-14177 (26418)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$75.27

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

30595-35687 (66282)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yusuke Kusuhara

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

10229-8705 (18934)

Research grade

NeutralJay Dylan Friend at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yusuke Kusuhara) and the top 1000 (4 on Jay Dylan Friend) disagree here.

whaleJay Dylan Friend 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJay Dylan Friend 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYusuke Kusuhara 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jay Dylan Friend 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jay Dylan Friend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.