BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Karl Friberg vs Toby Samuel

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (56%) · Toby Samuel at 100¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 14

Karl Friberg<1¢Toby Samuel>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 56%

Total Value

$34.8K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Karl Friberg0%

Toby Samuel100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel9 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares34,865

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Karl Friberg7 traders

Total Value$143.27

Total Shares5,437

Combined PnL-$505.37

Toby Samuel — 56%Karl Friberg — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Toby Samuelavg 87.4¢	$12.9K	$14.8K	+$1.8K	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Toby Samuelavg 86.4¢	$10.4K	$11.7K	+$1.3K	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
LI LightParadox	Toby Samuelavg 88.4¢	$3.7K	$4.0K	+$249.5	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
FL Flaznorp	Toby Samuelavg 90.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$56.93	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI Limousin	Toby Samuelavg 91¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$95.23	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
PA Paul973973	Toby Samuelavg 93.3¢	$1.0K	$940.86	-$62.64	89% 1069-137 (1206)
EU Eulhunter	Toby Samuelavg 86.6¢	$413.26	$450.77	+$37.5	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
MA MadridTime	Toby Samuelavg 89¢	$379.64	$404.57	+$24.93	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Karl Fribergavg 11¢	$70.33	$79.92	+$9.59	57% 4276-3206 (7482)
machinelearned<$100	Toby Samuelavg 87¢	$17.4	$19.96	+$2.56	55% 9930-8242 (18172)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Karl Fribergavg 6¢	$8.77	$19	+$10.23	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Karl Fribergavg 11.5¢	$15.2	$16.53	+$1.34	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Karl Fribergavg 15.2¢	$353.99	$13.92	-$35.72	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
TS TSFSYDCTR	Karl Fribergavg 12¢	$500	$8.33	-$491.66	52% 157-147 (304)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Karl Fribergavg 13¢	$3.56	$3.42	-$0.14	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Karl Fribergavg 7¢	$1.15	$2.14	+$0.99	56% 1967-1522 (3489)

RN1

Toby Samuel

Invested

$12,945.38

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

ferrariChampions2026

Toby Samuel

Invested

$10,394.67

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

LightParadox

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,730.75

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$249.5

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Flaznorp

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,177.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.93

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Limousin

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,044.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$95.23

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Paul973973

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,003.5

Value

$940.86

PnL

-$62.64

Record

89%

1069-137 (1206)

Eulhunter

Toby Samuel

Invested

$413.26

Value

$450.77

PnL

+$37.5

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

MadridTime

Toby Samuel

Invested

$379.64

Value

$404.57

PnL

+$24.93

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Karl Friberg

Invested

$70.33

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$9.59

Record

57%

4276-3206 (7482)

machinelearned<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$17.4

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$2.56

Record

55%

9930-8242 (18172)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Karl Friberg

Invested

$8.77

Value

$19

PnL

+$10.23

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

VenusianCTR<$100

Karl Friberg

Invested

$15.2

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$1.34

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

thestingsnakeCTR

Karl Friberg

Invested

$353.99

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$35.72

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

TSFSYDCTR

Karl Friberg

Invested

$500

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$491.66

Record

52%

157-147 (304)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Karl Friberg

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Karl Friberg

Invested

$1.15

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.99

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.