Monastir: Jonas Forejtek vs Marvin Moeller

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (57%) · Jonas Forejtek at 67¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 21

Jonas Forejtek67¢Marvin Moeller33¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$58.3

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 66.5¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

12 of 21 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jonas Forejtek67%

Marvin Moeller34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek12 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,290

Combined PnL-$31.79

Marvin Moeller9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,170

Combined PnL+$90.09

Jonas Forejtek — 57%Marvin Moeller — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.58	52% 808-738 (1546)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 50¢	$589.52	$795.85	+$206.33
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 47.1¢	$589	$406.25	-$182.75
VeryLucky888	Jonas Forejtekavg 65.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$12.23	53% 1335-1164 (2499)
0xheavy888	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$880.43	$887.1	+$6.67	54% 490-415 (905)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 56.8¢	$914.14	$870.65	-$33.29	48% 269-286 (555)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 56.8¢	$539.49	$622.25	+$82.76
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 50¢	$359.67	$248.4	-$116.05
FL FlaznorpCTR	Marvin Moelleravg 35.9¢	$607.26	$550.5	-$56.75	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 51.7¢	$427.23	$518.48	+$91.25	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 51.7¢	$291.6	$380.73	+$89.13
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 32¢	$135.63	$137.75	+$2.12
TRCM	Jonas Forejtekavg 51¢	$457.75	$489.16	+$31.41	16% 83-451 (534)
LI LimousinCTR	Marvin Moelleravg 30.1¢	$435.01	$476.7	+$41.69	36% 926-1642 (2568)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Marvin Moelleravg 33.9¢	$355.88	$475.98	+$120.11	48% 509-543 (1052)
MA MadridTime	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$487.98	$406.34	-$81.64	37% 965-1630 (2595)
VI vibing123	Jonas Forejtekavg 64¢	$339.2	$320.65	-$18.55	62% 1133-695 (1828)
TH thestingsnake	Jonas Forejtekavg 50.9¢	$253.49	$261.56	+$13.64	33% 215-434 (649)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Marvin Moelleravg 31.4¢	$557.77	$258.75	-$13.83	49% 278-293 (571)
38 38791873984189CTR	Marvin Moelleravg 28.4¢	$248.6	$240.63	-$7.98	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$239.83	$235.43	-$4.4	56% 4054-3166 (7220)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$154.59	$125.37	-$29.22
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 36¢	$85.24	$110.06	+$24.82
EU Eulhunter	Jonas Forejtekavg 54¢	$154.45	$153.01	-$1.44	51% 187-178 (365)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jonas Forejtekavg 63.8¢	$101.4	$105.63	+$4.23	46% 481-569 (1050)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 48¢	$97.96	$96.94	-$1.02	5% 21-434 (455)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 43.5¢	$103.19	$88.37	-$14.82	36% 944-1666 (2610)
└ Marvin Moeller leg	Marvin Moelleravg 43.5¢	$62.22	$46.47	-$15.75
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$40.97	$41.9	+$0.93
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 29.4¢	$67.65	$74.75	+$7.1	30% 205-474 (679)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Marvin Moelleravg 36.3¢	$128.6	$61.23	+$0.33	44% 360-461 (821)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 55.9¢	$18.25	$22.04	+$3.79	37% 956-1658 (2614)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 67¢	$20	$19.85	-$0.15	45% 158-194 (352)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 33¢	$14.1	$14.32	+$0.21	43% 85-111 (196)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$6.48	$5.53	-$0.95	29% 235-576 (811)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,178.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.58

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$589.5250¢+$206.33

Marvin Moeller$58947.1¢-$182.75

VeryLucky888

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,304.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.23

Record

53%

1335-1164 (2499)

0xheavy888

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$880.43

Value

$887.1

PnL

+$6.67

Record

54%

490-415 (905)

GaditimaARB<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$914.14

Value

$870.65

PnL

-$33.29

Record

48%

269-286 (555)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$539.4956.8¢+$82.76

Marvin Moeller$359.6750¢-$116.05

FlaznorpCTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$607.26

Value

$550.5

PnL

-$56.75

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$427.23

Value

$518.48

PnL

+$91.25

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$291.651.7¢+$89.13

Marvin Moeller$135.6332¢+$2.12

TRCM

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$457.75

Value

$489.16

PnL

+$31.41

Record

16%

83-451 (534)

LimousinCTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$435.01

Value

$476.7

PnL

+$41.69

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$355.88

Value

$475.98

PnL

+$120.11

Record

48%

509-543 (1052)

MadridTime

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$487.98

Value

$406.34

PnL

-$81.64

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

vibing123

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$339.2

Value

$320.65

PnL

-$18.55

Record

62%

1133-695 (1828)

thestingsnake

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$253.49

Value

$261.56

PnL

+$13.64

Record

33%

215-434 (649)

thirdt1meCTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$557.77

Value

$258.75

PnL

-$13.83

Record

49%

278-293 (571)

38791873984189CTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$248.6

Value

$240.63

PnL

-$7.98

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$239.83

Value

$235.43

PnL

-$4.4

Record

56%

4054-3166 (7220)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$154.5966¢-$29.22

Marvin Moeller$85.2436¢+$24.82

Eulhunter

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$154.45

Value

$153.01

PnL

-$1.44

Record

51%

187-178 (365)

omnibus-076daa

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$101.4

Value

$105.63

PnL

+$4.23

Record

46%

481-569 (1050)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$97.96

Value

$96.94

PnL

-$1.02

Record

21-434 (455)

VenusianARB<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$103.19

Value

$88.37

PnL

-$14.82

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

Both legs:

Marvin Moeller$62.2243.5¢-$15.75

Jonas Forejtek$40.9766¢+$0.93

babybellsCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$67.65

Value

$74.75

PnL

+$7.1

Record

30%

205-474 (679)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$128.6

Value

$61.23

PnL

+$0.33

Record

44%

360-461 (821)

LightParadox<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$18.25

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$3.79

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

glennyorkshire<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$20

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

45%

158-194 (352)

efntrickCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

85-111 (196)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$6.48

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.95

Record

29%

235-576 (811)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

12 of 21 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.