Bratislava 2: Jonas Forejtek vs Matthew William Donald

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (65%) · Jonas Forejtek at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9

Jonas Forejtek99¢Matthew William Donald1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 65%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$781.87

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 98.8¢

+29% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jonas Forejtek99%

Matthew William Donald1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek11 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,783

Combined PnL+$819.2

Matthew William Donald6 traders

Total Value$188.23

Total Shares1,790

Combined PnL-$37.33

Jonas Forejtek — 65%Matthew William Donald — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMatthew William Donald 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpMatthew William Donald 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJonas Forejtek 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Jonas Forejtekavg 77.2¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$429.4	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
MO mouzsynapse	Jonas Forejtekavg 61¢	$938.89	$1.3K	+$354.01	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
UP UpTheBlues	Jonas Forejtekavg 86¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$64.3	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
65 6512395314597884	Jonas Forejtekavg 82¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$43.5	49% 2929-3048 (5977)
38 38791873984189	Jonas Forejtekavg 61¢	$414.29	$382.34	+$55.74	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
TRCM	Jonas Forejtekavg 88¢	$336.73	$348.21	+$11.48	55% 3977-3206 (7183)
TH thestingsnake	Jonas Forejtekavg 86.9¢	$283.73	$267.75	-$15.98	60% 4155-2786 (6941)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jonas Forejtekavg 85¢	$223.39	$241.9	-$2.38	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 18¢	$55.8	$55.8	+$1.55	48% 1153-1269 (2422)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 15¢	$39.33	$47.21	+$7.88	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 5.4¢	$53.6	$45	-$8.6	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 88¢	$39.53	$38.14	-$1.39	52% 14038-12792 (26830)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 37¢	$74.74	$37.37	-$37.37	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 61¢	$28.43	$37.03	+$8.61	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 93¢	$19.11	$19.63	+$0.51	56% 1880-1459 (3339)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 38¢	$3.35	$2.57	-$0.79	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 37¢	$0.29	$0.29	+$0	61% 13851-8756 (22607)

Flaznorp

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,814.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$429.4

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

mouzsynapse

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$938.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$354.01

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

UpTheBlues

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,282.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$64.3

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

6512395314597884

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,019.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$43.5

Record

49%

2929-3048 (5977)

38791873984189

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$414.29

Value

$382.34

PnL

+$55.74

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

TRCM

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$336.73

Value

$348.21

PnL

+$11.48

Record

55%

3977-3206 (7183)

thestingsnake

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$283.73

Value

$267.75

PnL

-$15.98

Record

60%

4155-2786 (6941)

omnibus-076daa

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$223.39

Value

$241.9

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$55.8

Value

$55.8

PnL

+$1.55

Record

48%

1153-1269 (2422)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$39.33

Value

$47.21

PnL

+$7.88

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$53.6

Value

$45

PnL

-$8.6

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$39.53

Value

$38.14

PnL

-$1.39

Record

52%

14038-12792 (26830)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$74.74

Value

$37.37

PnL

-$37.37

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$28.43

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$8.61

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

SchruteBucks<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$19.11

Value

$19.63

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

1880-1459 (3339)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.79

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMatthew William Donald 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpMatthew William Donald 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJonas Forejtek 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.