Monastir: Kilian Feldbausch vs Tiago Pereira

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tiago Pereira (67%) · Tiago Pereira at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Kilian Feldbausch49¢Tiago Pereira51¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tiago Pereira

Consensus Traders

Tiago Pereira 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$96.25

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 51.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTiago Pereira at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tiago Pereira

4 of 6 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch49%

Tiago Pereira52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tiago Pereira4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,596

Combined PnL-$57.37

Kilian Feldbausch2 traders

Total Value$281.6

Total Shares454

Combined PnL-$38.88

Tiago Pereira — 67%Kilian Feldbausch — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tiago Pereiraavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$64.72	53% 1788-1590 (3378)
65 6512395314597884	Tiago Pereiraavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 70.7¢	$338.92	$297.17	-$41.76	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 70.7¢	$286.57	$186.47	-$100.11
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 25.5¢	$52.35	$110.7	+$58.35
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 48¢	$352.03	$275.19	+$1.8	43% 109-146 (255)
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 48¢	$192	$190	-$2
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 45.7¢	$74.14	$85.19	+$3.8
0xheavy888CTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 70¢	$233.33	$235	+$1.67	55% 198-165 (363)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.3¢	$173.91	$168.78	-$5.13	39% 480-748 (1228)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.3¢	$156.75	$133.5	-$23.25
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 27¢	$17.16	$35.28	+$18.12
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 39.7¢	$193.59	$127.15	+$7.66	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 39.7¢	$57.18	$88.56	+$31.38
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47¢	$47.11	$38.59	-$23.72
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 71.2¢	$140.63	$112.68	-$25.5	23% 112-368 (480)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 71.2¢	$91.62	$67.55	-$25.17
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 47.8¢	$45.45	$45.13	-$0.33
BA babybellsARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 44.1¢	$90.4	$101.25	+$10.85	22% 116-403 (519)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 44.1¢	$55.15	$65.63	+$10.47
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 47¢	$35.25	$35.63	+$0.38
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 45.5¢	$64.7	$68.67	+$3.97	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 45.5¢	$47.12	$41.91	-$5.21
└ Tiago Pereira leg	Tiago Pereiraavg 39.1¢	$17.58	$26.76	+$9.18
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 72¢	$87.14	$46.6	-$40.54	31% 373-839 (1212)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 57.2¢	$28.59	$25.75	-$2.84	21% 132-485 (617)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tiago Pereiraavg 29¢	$10.68	$10.86	+$0.18	48% 654-705 (1359)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$2,309.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$64.72

Record

53%

1788-1590 (3378)

6512395314597884

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$1,220

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$338.92

Value

$297.17

PnL

-$41.76

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$286.5770.7¢-$100.11

Tiago Pereira$52.3525.5¢+$58.35

thirdt1meARB<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$352.03

Value

$275.19

PnL

+$1.8

Record

43%

109-146 (255)

Both legs:

Tiago Pereira$19248¢-$2

Kilian Feldbausch$74.1445.7¢+$3.8

0xheavy888CTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$233.33

Value

$235

PnL

+$1.67

Record

55%

198-165 (363)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$173.91

Value

$168.78

PnL

-$5.13

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$156.7552.3¢-$23.25

Tiago Pereira$17.1627¢+$18.12

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$193.59

Value

$127.15

PnL

+$7.66

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

Both legs:

Tiago Pereira$57.1839.7¢+$31.38

Kilian Feldbausch$47.1147¢-$23.72

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$140.63

Value

$112.68

PnL

-$25.5

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$91.6271.2¢-$25.17

Tiago Pereira$45.4547.8¢-$0.33

babybellsARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$90.4

Value

$101.25

PnL

+$10.85

Record

22%

116-403 (519)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$55.1544.1¢+$10.47

Tiago Pereira$35.2547¢+$0.38

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$64.7

Value

$68.67

PnL

+$3.97

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$47.1245.5¢-$5.21

Tiago Pereira$17.5839.1¢+$9.18

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$87.14

Value

$46.6

PnL

-$40.54

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$28.59

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$2.84

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Pan9X<$100

Tiago Pereira

Invested

$10.68

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

Research grade

NeutralTiago Pereira at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tiago Pereira

4 of 6 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tiago Pereira wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.