Monastir: Kilian Feldbausch vs Mae Malige

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (50%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 79¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 19

Kilian Feldbausch79¢Mae Malige21¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 50%

Total Value

$342.24

Combined PnL

$2.13

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 78.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch79%

Mae Malige22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch4 traders

Total Value$273

Total Shares341

Combined PnL-$5.16

Mae Malige4 traders

Total Value$69.25

Total Shares329

Combined PnL+$7.29

Kilian Feldbausch — 50%Mae Malige — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (4 on Mae Malige) disagree here.

ctrMae Malige 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mae Malige 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 81¢	$168.07	$140.97	-$6	52% 661-616 (1277)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 78¢	$57.35	$57.71	+$0.37	61% 943-603 (1546)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mae Maligeavg 19¢	$44.71	$49.42	+$4.71	33% 503-1013 (1516)
0xheavy888<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 78¢	$45.76	$46.05	+$0.29	54% 236-199 (435)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 78¢	$28.08	$28.26	+$0.18	47% 896-997 (1893)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Mae Maligeavg 18¢	$10.22	$11.92	+$1.7	38% 72-117 (189)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mae Maligeavg 19¢	$6.23	$6.86	+$0.63	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Mae Maligeavg 16¢	$0.8	$1.05	+$0.25	32% 489-1029 (1518)

VeryLucky888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$168.07

Value

$140.97

PnL

-$6

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

darkumbreon88<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$57.35

Value

$57.71

PnL

+$0.37

Record

61%

943-603 (1546)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mae Malige

Invested

$44.71

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$4.71

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

0xheavy888<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$45.76

Value

$46.05

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

236-199 (435)

Pan9X<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$28.08

Value

$28.26

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

896-997 (1893)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Mae Malige

Invested

$10.22

Value

$11.92

PnL

+$1.7

Record

38%

72-117 (189)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mae Malige

Invested

$6.23

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.63

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

LimousinCTR<$100

Mae Malige

Invested

$0.8

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (4 on Mae Malige) disagree here.

ctrMae Malige 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mae Malige 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.