Drummondville: Adam Faragcao vs Hoyoung Roh

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Hoyoung Roh (62%) · Hoyoung Roh at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Adam Faragcao4¢Hoyoung Roh96¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hoyoung Roh

Consensus Traders

Hoyoung Roh 62%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$299.81

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 96¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHoyoung Roh at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hoyoung Roh

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adam Faragcao4%

Hoyoung Roh96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hoyoung Roh8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,407

Combined PnL+$372.49

Adam Faragcao5 traders

Total Value$683.02

Total Shares3,875

Combined PnL-$72.68

Hoyoung Roh — 62%Adam Faragcao — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Hoyoung Roh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHoyoung Roh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdam Faragcao 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoyoung Roh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hoyoung Roh 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Hoyoung Rohavg 82¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$249.11	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
NO NotJumpCTR	Adam Faragcaoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$570.01	-$5	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
LI LightParadox	Hoyoung Rohavg 95¢	$533.33	$531.37	-$1.97	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
FL Flaznorp	Hoyoung Rohavg 82¢	$446.68	$521.61	+$74.94	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0xheavy888	Hoyoung Rohavg 84.5¢	$334.06	$379.6	+$45.54	56% 668-530 (1198)
LI LimousinCTR	Adam Faragcaoavg 6¢	$153.3	$102.2	-$51.1	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SU suntori<$100	Hoyoung Rohavg 95¢	$95.23	$96.23	+$1	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Hoyoung Rohavg 82¢	$16.4	$19.2	+$2.8	83% 978-205 (1183)
BA babybells<$100	Hoyoung Rohavg 93¢	$8.64	$8.91	+$0.28	34% 272-524 (796)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Adam Faragcaoavg 11¢	$21.95	$7.98	-$13.97	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
GA Gaditima<$100	Hoyoung Rohavg 80¢	$4	$4.8	+$0.8	49% 395-410 (805)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Adam Faragcaoavg 5¢	$2.85	$2.29	-$0.55	48% 638-680 (1318)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Adam Faragcaoavg 19.4¢	$2.6	$0.54	-$2.06	38% 1354-2217 (3571)

RN1

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$1,459.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$249.11

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

NotJumpCTR

Adam Faragcao

Invested

$1,050

Value

$570.01

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

LightParadox

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$533.33

Value

$531.37

PnL

-$1.97

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

Flaznorp

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$446.68

Value

$521.61

PnL

+$74.94

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0xheavy888

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$334.06

Value

$379.6

PnL

+$45.54

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

LimousinCTR

Adam Faragcao

Invested

$153.3

Value

$102.2

PnL

-$51.1

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

suntori<$100

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$95.23

Value

$96.23

PnL

+$1

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$16.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$2.8

Record

83%

978-205 (1183)

babybells<$100

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.28

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Adam Faragcao

Invested

$21.95

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$13.97

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Gaditima<$100

Hoyoung Roh

Invested

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

395-410 (805)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Adam Faragcao

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

VenusianCTR<$100

Adam Faragcao

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$2.06

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Research grade

NeutralHoyoung Roh at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Hoyoung Roh

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Hoyoung Roh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHoyoung Roh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAdam Faragcao 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoyoung Roh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hoyoung Roh 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hoyoung Roh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.