BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Etcheverry (60%) · Tomas Etcheverry at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Tomas Etcheverry
5
Tomas Etcheverry 60%
$5.1K
$8.4
56¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTomas Etcheverry at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Etcheverry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Tomas Etcheverryavg 56¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$0 | 0% 1-493 (494) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 44¢ | $747.54 | $755.94 | +$8.4 | 48% 206-226 (432) |
 nigiri99CTR | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 44¢ | $459.8 | $459.8 | +$0 | 52% 121-112 (233) |
TH TheMathGod<$100 | Tomas Etcheverryavg 56¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | — 1-3 (4) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Tomas Etcheverryavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | — 11-2 (13) |
Invested
$3,920
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
0%
1-493 (494)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$747.54
Value
$755.94
PnL
+$8.4
Record
48%
206-226 (432)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$459.8
Value
$459.8
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
121-112 (233)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
—
11-2 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.