Monastir: Nino Ehrenschneider vs Mae Malige

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nino Ehrenschneider (100%) · Nino Ehrenschneider at 60¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Nino Ehrenschneider60¢Mae Malige40¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nino Ehrenschneider

Consensus Traders

Nino Ehrenschneider 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$785.64

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 59.5¢

-19% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNino Ehrenschneider at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nino Ehrenschneider

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nino Ehrenschneider60%

Mae Malige41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nino Ehrenschneider13 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,773

Combined PnL-$785.64

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 75.7¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$506.43	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 80.4¢	$1.5K	$876.67	-$5.04	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
└ Nino Ehrenschneider leg	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 80.4¢	$577.06	$445.16	-$175.56
└ Mae Malige leg	Mae Maligeavg 23¢	$260.99	$431.51	+$170.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 68.8¢	$858.49	$742.95	-$115.54	47% 2286-2587 (4873)
TH thestingsnake	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 77¢	$231	$186	-$45	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
CI cigarettes	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 79¢	$197.5	$148.75	-$48.75	50% 66281-66811 (133092)
TH thirdt1me	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 72.8¢	$471.69	$126.38	+$3.64	58% 233-171 (404)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 77.5¢	$139.5	$107.1	-$32.4	52% 6204-5726 (11930)
LR lryyy	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 77¢	$135.52	$104.72	-$30.8	48% 40324-43279 (83603)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 51¢	$32.62	$38.06	+$5.44	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
0xheavy888<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 54¢	$40.49	$37.11	-$3.37	56% 9039-7126 (16165)
machinelearned<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 70.7¢	$42.4	$35.7	-$6.7	54% 10552-8959 (19511)
MA MadridTime<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 56.2¢	$40.49	$35.64	-$4.85	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
LI LightParadox<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 51.3¢	$9.9	$9.56	-$0.34	45% 2723-3293 (6016)
VE Venusian<$100	Nino Ehrenschneideravg 53.2¢	$7.45	$6.93	-$0.52	45% 2804-3415 (6219)

Limousin

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$2,410.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$506.43

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$1,536.46

Value

$876.67

PnL

-$5.04

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

Both legs:

Nino Ehrenschneider$577.0680.4¢-$175.56

Mae Malige$260.9923¢+$170.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$858.49

Value

$742.95

PnL

-$115.54

Record

47%

2286-2587 (4873)

thestingsnake

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$231

Value

$186

PnL

-$45

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

cigarettes

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$197.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$48.75

Record

50%

66281-66811 (133092)

thirdt1me

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$471.69

Value

$126.38

PnL

+$3.64

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$139.5

Value

$107.1

PnL

-$32.4

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

lryyy

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$135.52

Value

$104.72

PnL

-$30.8

Record

48%

40324-43279 (83603)

Flaznorp<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$32.62

Value

$38.06

PnL

+$5.44

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

0xheavy888<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$40.49

Value

$37.11

PnL

-$3.37

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

machinelearned<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$42.4

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$6.7

Record

54%

10552-8959 (19511)

MadridTime<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$40.49

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$4.85

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

LightParadox<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.34

Record

45%

2723-3293 (6016)

Venusian<$100

Nino Ehrenschneider

Invested

$7.45

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.52

Record

45%

2804-3415 (6219)

Research grade

NeutralNino Ehrenschneider at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nino Ehrenschneider

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nino Ehrenschneider wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.