Monastir: Moez Echargui vs Mika Petkovic

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Moez Echargui (67%) · Moez Echargui at 63¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 19

Moez Echargui63¢Mika Petkovic37¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moez Echargui

Consensus Traders

Moez Echargui 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$200.98

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 63¢

-3% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Moez Echargui63%

Mika Petkovic37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moez Echargui14 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares12,906

Combined PnL+$444.29

Mika Petkovic7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares11,156

Combined PnL-$243.32

Moez Echargui — 67%Mika Petkovic — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoez Echargui 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 65% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Moez Echarguiavg 67.6¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$189.71	32% 538-1125 (1663)
JU Justluck9	Moez Echarguiavg 61¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$150	8% 13-154 (167)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Mika Petkovicavg 35.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$122.86	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
LI LightParadox	Moez Echarguiavg 63.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$53.58	33% 553-1132 (1685)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Moez Echargui leg	Moez Echarguiavg 50¢	$525	$651	+$126
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 50¢	$525	$388.5	-$136.5
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 34.3¢	$1.1K	$736.75	-$47.41	48% 335-369 (704)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 35.6¢	$709.97	$678.71	-$31.26	45% 157-194 (351)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mika Petkovicavg 34.8¢	$477.38	$404.3	-$30.32	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
MA MadridTime	Moez Echarguiavg 66.4¢	$317.89	$354.04	+$36.15	33% 558-1109 (1667)
TH thestingsnake	Moez Echarguiavg 63.8¢	$353.64	$352.13	-$1.51	30% 171-397 (568)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 74¢	$372.43	$340.14	-$32.29	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
└ Moez Echargui leg	Moez Echarguiavg 74¢	$230.2	$200.58	-$29.62
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 36.2¢	$142.23	$139.56	-$2.67
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 32.9¢	$324.53	$321.27	-$3.26	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI Limousin	Moez Echarguiavg 61.5¢	$275.5	$273	+$18.7	33% 534-1108 (1642)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Mika Petkovicavg 36.1¢	$85.3	$61.82	-$6.4	27% 157-430 (587)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 67.1¢	$35.56	$35.51	-$0.05	26% 182-522 (704)
tradecraft<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 57.3¢	$19.36	$20.96	+$1.6	22% 176-635 (811)
PA Pan9X<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 67¢	$22.11	$20.46	-$1.65	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
VeryLucky888<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 66¢	$19.8	$17.69	-$1.11	52% 761-712 (1473)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Mika Petkovicavg 38.5¢	$15.4	$13.6	-$1.8	34% 277-534 (811)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 64¢	$12.8	$12.4	-$0.4	82% 375-80 (455)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 61.5¢	$9.35	$10	+$0.65	41% 251-365 (616)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 68¢	$10	$9.11	-$0.88	46% 97-112 (209)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.2	-$0.5	38% 487-808 (1295)

Venusian

Moez Echargui

Invested

$4,348.24

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$189.71

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

Justluck9

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,830

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$150

Record

13-154 (167)

6512395314597884CTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$1,608.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$122.86

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

LightParadox

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,229.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$53.58

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

NotJumpARB<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Moez Echargui$52550¢+$126

Mika Petkovic$52550¢-$136.5

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$1,092.13

Value

$736.75

PnL

-$47.41

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

thirdt1meCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$709.97

Value

$678.71

PnL

-$31.26

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

38791873984189CTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$477.38

Value

$404.3

PnL

-$30.32

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

MadridTime

Moez Echargui

Invested

$317.89

Value

$354.04

PnL

+$36.15

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

thestingsnake

Moez Echargui

Invested

$353.64

Value

$352.13

PnL

-$1.51

Record

30%

171-397 (568)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$372.43

Value

$340.14

PnL

-$32.29

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

Both legs:

Moez Echargui$230.274¢-$29.62

Mika Petkovic$142.2336.2¢-$2.67

FlaznorpCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$324.53

Value

$321.27

PnL

-$3.26

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Limousin

Moez Echargui

Invested

$275.5

Value

$273

PnL

+$18.7

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

babybellsCTR<$100

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$85.3

Value

$61.82

PnL

-$6.4

Record

27%

157-430 (587)

BillBenter2026<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.51

PnL

-$0.05

Record

26%

182-522 (704)

tradecraft<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$19.36

Value

$20.96

PnL

+$1.6

Record

22%

176-635 (811)

Pan9X<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$22.11

Value

$20.46

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

VeryLucky888<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$19.8

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$1.11

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$15.4

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

34%

277-534 (811)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

82%

375-80 (455)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.65

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

glennyorkshire<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$10

Value

$9.11

PnL

-$0.88

Record

46%

97-112 (209)

ameisgoat11<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

487-808 (1295)

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoez Echargui 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 65% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moez Echargui wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.