BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Damir Dzumhur vs Inaki Montes

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Inaki Montes (42%) · Inaki Montes at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Damir Dzumhur27¢Inaki Montes73¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inaki Montes

Consensus Traders

Inaki Montes 42%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$66.72

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 73.5¢

+56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInaki Montes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inaki Montes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Damir Dzumhur27%

Inaki Montes74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inaki Montes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,480

Combined PnL+$348.37

Damir Dzumhur7 traders

Total Value$563.61

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL-$415.09

Inaki Montes — 42%Damir Dzumhur — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TRCM	Inaki Montesavg 38¢	$342	$652.5	+$310.5	55% 4079-3289 (7368)
LI LightParadox	Inaki Montesavg 56.2¢	$400	$430.32	+$30.32	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Damir Dzumhuravg 47.8¢	$564.79	$324.92	-$239.87	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
VE Venusian	Inaki Montesavg 61.2¢	$213.13	$210.69	-$2.44	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
RN1	Inaki Montesavg 37¢	$167.11	$169.37	+$2.26	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Damir Dzumhuravg 61¢	$293.67	$132.44	-$161.23	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Inaki Montesavg 62.3¢	$42.99	$50.71	+$7.73	57% 19424-14372 (33796)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Damir Dzumhuravg 61¢	$51.7	$40	+$3.12	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Damir Dzumhuravg 38.7¢	$41.46	$28.36	-$13.1	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Damir Dzumhuravg 61.7¢	$18.5	$18.75	+$0.25	48% 3686-3932 (7618)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Damir Dzumhuravg 60.2¢	$17.11	$12.9	-$4.21	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Damir Dzumhuravg 63¢	$6.3	$6.25	-$0.05	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

TRCM

Inaki Montes

Invested

$342

Value

$652.5

PnL

+$310.5

Record

55%

4079-3289 (7368)

LightParadox

Inaki Montes

Invested

$400

Value

$430.32

PnL

+$30.32

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$564.79

Value

$324.92

PnL

-$239.87

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

Venusian

Inaki Montes

Invested

$213.13

Value

$210.69

PnL

-$2.44

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

RN1

Inaki Montes

Invested

$167.11

Value

$169.37

PnL

+$2.26

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

FlaznorpCTR

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$293.67

Value

$132.44

PnL

-$161.23

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

BillBenter2026<$100

Inaki Montes

Invested

$42.99

Value

$50.71

PnL

+$7.73

Record

57%

19424-14372 (33796)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$51.7

Value

$40

PnL

+$3.12

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$41.46

Value

$28.36

PnL

-$13.1

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

efntrickCTR<$100

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3686-3932 (7618)

LimousinCTR<$100

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$17.11

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$4.21

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Damir Dzumhur

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralInaki Montes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Inaki Montes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inaki Montes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.