Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miomir Kecmanovic

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Miomir Kecmanovic (58%) · Miomir Kecmanovic at 100¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 7

James Duckworth<1¢Miomir Kecmanovic>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miomir Kecmanovic

Consensus Traders

Miomir Kecmanovic 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiomir Kecmanovic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miomir Kecmanovic

11 of 19 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

James Duckworth0%

Miomir Kecmanovic100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miomir Kecmanovic11 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares17,405

Combined PnL+$1.5K

James Duckworth8 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares18,551

Combined PnL+$289.98

Miomir Kecmanovic — 58%James Duckworth — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 64.5¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$180.82	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 53.9¢	$3.0K	$3.9K	+$872.87	48% 920-988 (1908)
C6 C63AMGCTR	James Duckworthavg 56.5¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$120	73% 868-329 (1197)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	James Duckworthavg 43¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$35.75	38% 498-807 (1305)
MR MrDoucheCTR	James Duckworthavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$13.58	82% 1688-362 (2050)
TH thestingsnake	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 68.9¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	+$368.37	60% 4065-2738 (6803)
88MCTR	James Duckworthavg 20¢	$208.33	$442.71	+$234.37	42% 780-1079 (1859)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 77.7¢	$568.05	$427.8	-$140.25	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
└ Miomir Kecmanovic leg	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 77.7¢	$319.97	$329.6	+$9.63
└ James Duckworth leg	James Duckworthavg 50.5¢	$248.08	$98.2	-$149.88
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	James Duckworthavg 51¢	$200	$201.96	+$1.96	53% 3187-2811 (5998)
IL Illiasca	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 79¢	$260	$189.24	-$70.76	65% 279-151 (430)
VeryLucky888	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 56¢	$167.99	$172.49	+$4.5	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
RN1	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 98¢	$153.13	$156.17	+$3.05	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	James Duckworthavg 59¢	$152.81	$151.52	-$1.3	50% 3869-3825 (7694)
tradecraftARB<$100	James Duckworthavg 59.1¢	$116.62	$91.55	-$25.07	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
└ Miomir Kecmanovic leg	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 59.2¢	$51.57	$70.1	+$18.53
└ James Duckworth leg	James Duckworthavg 59.1¢	$65.05	$21.45	-$43.6
TRCMCTR	James Duckworthavg 14¢	$101.37	$90.12	-$11.25	55% 3948-3180 (7128)
FL flatbarrel	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 74.8¢	$4.0K	$49.98	+$150.89	58% 2750-1972 (4722)
poshposh<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 70¢	$16.42	$18.88	+$2.46	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 74.5¢	$9.25	$10	+$0.75	85% 5310-912 (6222)
PA pauleta23<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 79¢	$10	$8.8	-$1.2	67% 23332-11736 (35068)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.75	+$0.15	48% 2389-2622 (5011)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	James Duckworthavg 12¢	$9.5	$0.02	-$4.48	36% 15596-27543 (43139)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$9,010.33

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$180.82

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$3,018.95

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$872.87

Record

48%

920-988 (1908)

C63AMGCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$3,390

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$120

Record

73%

868-329 (1197)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$3,189

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$35.75

Record

38%

498-807 (1305)

MrDoucheCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$1,602.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.58

Record

82%

1688-362 (2050)

thestingsnake

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$1,917.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$368.37

Record

60%

4065-2738 (6803)

88MCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$208.33

Value

$442.71

PnL

+$234.37

Record

42%

780-1079 (1859)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$568.05

Value

$427.8

PnL

-$140.25

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

Both legs:

Miomir Kecmanovic$319.9777.7¢+$9.63

James Duckworth$248.0850.5¢-$149.88

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$200

Value

$201.96

PnL

+$1.96

Record

53%

3187-2811 (5998)

Illiasca

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$260

Value

$189.24

PnL

-$70.76

Record

65%

279-151 (430)

VeryLucky888

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$167.99

Value

$172.49

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

RN1

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$153.13

Value

$156.17

PnL

+$3.05

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

NatoAlfistaCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$152.81

Value

$151.52

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

3869-3825 (7694)

tradecraftARB<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$116.62

Value

$91.55

PnL

-$25.07

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

Both legs:

Miomir Kecmanovic$51.5759.2¢+$18.53

James Duckworth$65.0559.1¢-$43.6

TRCMCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$101.37

Value

$90.12

PnL

-$11.25

Record

55%

3948-3180 (7128)

flatbarrel

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$3,969.09

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$150.89

Record

58%

2750-1972 (4722)

poshposh<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.88

PnL

+$2.46

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$9.25

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.75

Record

85%

5310-912 (6222)

pauleta23<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$10

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

67%

23332-11736 (35068)

ameisgoat11<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$9.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.48

Record

36%

15596-27543 (43139)

Research grade

NeutralMiomir Kecmanovic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Miomir Kecmanovic

11 of 19 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miomir Kecmanovic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.