Knoxville: Liam Draxl vs Duncan Chan

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (64%) · Liam Draxl at 75¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 16

Liam Draxl75¢Duncan Chan25¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liam Draxl

Consensus Traders

Liam Draxl 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$496.84

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 74.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl75%

Duncan Chan26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liam Draxl7 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares15,670

Combined PnL+$153.24

Duncan Chan4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares19,133

Combined PnL+$343.61

Liam Draxl — 64%Duncan Chan — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Liam Draxlavg 73.4¢	$10.5K	$10.6K	+$119.27	30% 105-246 (351)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Duncan Chanavg 26.5¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$176.3	0% 0-57 (57)
TH thestingsnake	Liam Draxlavg 65.8¢	$489.04	$442.19	+$38.63	25% 37-109 (146)
FL Flaznorp	Liam Draxlavg 72.6¢	$451.41	$437.9	-$13.51	52% 242-224 (466)
38 38791873984189CTR	Duncan Chanavg 26¢	$129.72	$259.45	+$129.72	49% 383-404 (787)
VE Venusian	Liam Draxlavg 71.6¢	$245.61	$255.58	+$9.97	23% 82-268 (350)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Liam Draxlavg 71.4¢	$126.69	$128.33	+$1.63	39% 41-64 (105)
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 71.4¢	$93.67	$99.07	+$5.41
└ Duncan Chan leg	Duncan Chanavg 27.7¢	$33.03	$29.26	-$3.77
LI LightParadox<$100	Liam Draxlavg 73.7¢	$72.93	$71.74	-$1.19	26% 87-252 (339)
RN1CTR<$100	Duncan Chanavg 25¢	$33.46	$69.59	+$36.13	54% 233-201 (434)
machinelearned<$100	Liam Draxlavg 74¢	$14.8	$14.9	+$0.1	44% 148-190 (338)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Liam Draxlavg 72¢	$4.32	$4.29	-$0.03	14% 30-180 (210)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Duncan Chanavg 23¢	$1.15	$2.6	+$1.45	23% 49-165 (214)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Liam Draxl

Invested

$10,460.36

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$119.27

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

MastermoneyCTR

Duncan Chan

Invested

$4,910.02

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$176.3

Record

0-57 (57)

thestingsnake

Liam Draxl

Invested

$489.04

Value

$442.19

PnL

+$38.63

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

Flaznorp

Liam Draxl

Invested

$451.41

Value

$437.9

PnL

-$13.51

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

38791873984189CTR

Duncan Chan

Invested

$129.72

Value

$259.45

PnL

+$129.72

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Venusian

Liam Draxl

Invested

$245.61

Value

$255.58

PnL

+$9.97

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$126.69

Value

$128.33

PnL

+$1.63

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

Both legs:

Liam Draxl$93.6771.4¢+$5.41

Duncan Chan$33.0327.7¢-$3.77

LightParadox<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$72.93

Value

$71.74

PnL

-$1.19

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

RN1CTR<$100

Duncan Chan

Invested

$33.46

Value

$69.59

PnL

+$36.13

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

machinelearned<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

BillBenter2026<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.03

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

sentrioCTR<$100

Duncan Chan

Invested

$1.15

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$1.45

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liam Draxl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.