Monastir: Aziz Dougaz vs Alejandro Moro Canas
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Moro Canas (83%) · Alejandro Moro Canas at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Alejandro Moro Canas
6
Alejandro Moro Canas 83%
$1.4K
-$0.45
58¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlejandro Moro Canas at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Moro Canas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58¢ | $700.66 | $700.66 | +$0 | 50% 3288-3243 (6531) |
FL Flaznorp | Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58.1¢ | $468.51 | $468.1 | -$0.41 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189 | Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58¢ | $192.84 | $192.84 | +$0 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58.1¢ | $40.98 | $40.89 | -$0.09 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Alejandro Moro Canasavg 58¢ | $22.57 | $22.57 | +$0 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Aziz Dougazavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.1 | +$0.05 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$700.66
Value
$700.66
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3288-3243 (6531)
Invested
$468.51
Value
$468.1
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$192.84
Value
$192.84
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$40.98
Value
$40.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$22.57
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.05
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.