BNP Paribas Nordic Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Arends/Johnson
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pavlasek/Rikl (25%) · Pavlasek/Rikl at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19
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Neutral
Pavlasek/Rikl
4
Pavlasek/Rikl 25%
2 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$53.7
Research grade
NeutralPavlasek/Rikl at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Pavlasek/Riklavg 63¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$79.36 | 49% 45-47 (92) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Arends/Johnsonavg 38.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$11.17 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
| └ Arends/Johnson leg | Arends/Johnsonavg 38.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$5.58 | |
| └ Pavlasek/Rikl leg | Pavlasek/Riklavg 60.7¢ | $415.37 | $420.96 | +$5.58 | |
CI cigarettesCTR | Arends/Johnsonavg 37.3¢ | $250.34 | $268.47 | +$18.14 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Pavlasek/Riklavg 61.1¢ | $215.19 | $208.58 | -$6.61 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
| └ Pavlasek/Rikl leg | Pavlasek/Riklavg 61.1¢ | $116.59 | $117.31 | +$0.72 | |
| └ Arends/Johnson leg | Arends/Johnsonavg 41.6¢ | $98.6 | $91.28 | -$7.33 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Arends/Johnsonavg 37.6¢ | $112.44 | $117.97 | +$5.53 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Arends/Johnsonavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $9.4 | +$2 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
Invested
$1,999.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$79.36
Record
49%
45-47 (92)
Invested
$1,562.68
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$11.17
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Both legs:
Invested
$250.34
Value
$268.47
PnL
+$18.14
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$215.19
Value
$208.58
PnL
-$6.61
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.44
Value
$117.97
PnL
+$5.53
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.