Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Paul/Vocel, while the market favors Liutarevich/Pieczonka (53%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Orleans (Doubles): Liutarevich/Pieczonka vs Paul/Vocel
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paul/Vocel (33%) · Paul/Vocel at 47¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Paul/Vocel
6
Paul/Vocel 33%
$224.19
$2.51
52.9¢ → 47¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPaul/Vocel at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Liutarevich/Pieczonka 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Paul/Vocelavg 53¢ | $129.89 | $134.92 | +$5.03 | 50% 2840-2873 (5713) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Liutarevich/Pieczonkaavg 44.9¢ | $42.56 | $43.72 | +$1.16 | 49% 4635-4903 (9538) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Liutarevich/Pieczonkaavg 40.9¢ | $25.21 | $21.05 | -$4.16 | 48% 3952-4304 (8256) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Paul/Vocelavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $11 | +$0.6 | 83% 962-202 (1164) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Liutarevich/Pieczonkaavg 46¢ | $10 | $9.78 | -$0.22 | 48% 224-246 (470) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Liutarevich/Pieczonkaavg 36¢ | $3.63 | $3.73 | +$0.1 | 39% 1558-2437 (3995) |
Invested
$129.89
Value
$134.92
PnL
+$5.03
Record
50%
2840-2873 (5713)
Invested
$42.56
Value
$43.72
PnL
+$1.16
Record
49%
4635-4903 (9538)
Invested
$25.21
Value
$21.05
PnL
-$4.16
Record
48%
3952-4304 (8256)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.6
Record
83%
962-202 (1164)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.78
PnL
-$0.22
Record
48%
224-246 (470)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.1
Record
39%
1558-2437 (3995)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.