Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rincon/Batalla, while the market favors Hidalgo/Molteni (65%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima (Doubles): Hidalgo/Molteni vs Rincon/Batalla

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rincon/Batalla (50%) · Rincon/Batalla at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Hidalgo/Molteni65¢Rincon/Batalla35¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rincon/Batalla

Consensus Traders

Rincon/Batalla 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$1.97

Smart Money Entry

34.2¢ → 35.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRincon/Batalla at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rincon/Batalla

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hidalgo/Molteni 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hidalgo/Molteni65%

Rincon/Batalla36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hidalgo/Molteni3 traders

Total Value$385.38

Total Shares574

Combined PnL+$8.85

Rincon/Batalla3 traders

Total Value$456.61

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL-$10.81

Hidalgo/Molteni — 50%Rincon/Batalla — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rincon/Batalla. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHidalgo/Molteni 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRincon/Batalla 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Hidalgo/Molteni 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 63.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$25.03	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
└ Hidalgo/Molteni leg	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 63.1¢	$757.42	$780.71	+$23.3
└ Rincon/Batalla leg	Rincon/Batallaavg 34.9¢	$697.41	$699.14	+$1.73
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rincon/Batallaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	54% 506-431 (937)
└ Hidalgo/Molteni leg	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 50¢	$525	$703.5	+$178.5
└ Rincon/Batalla leg	Rincon/Batallaavg 50¢	$525	$336	-$189
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 65.2¢	$350.06	$354.43	+$4.37	33% 340-676 (1016)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rincon/Batallaavg 33.2¢	$233.33	$245.83	+$12.5	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Rincon/Batallaavg 35.2¢	$125.89	$126.72	+$0.83	36% 558-990 (1548)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rincon/Batallaavg 35.4¢	$222.2	$84.06	-$24.14	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 63¢	$16	$20	+$4	84% 437-84 (521)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Hidalgo/Molteniavg 62.2¢	$10.47	$10.94	+$0.47	49% 1338-1368 (2706)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Hidalgo/Molteni

Invested

$1,454.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$25.03

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

Both legs:

Hidalgo/Molteni$757.4263.1¢+$23.3

Rincon/Batalla$697.4134.9¢+$1.73

NotJumpARB<$100

Rincon/Batalla

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

506-431 (937)

Both legs:

Hidalgo/Molteni$52550¢+$178.5

Rincon/Batalla$52550¢-$189

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Hidalgo/Molteni

Invested

$350.06

Value

$354.43

PnL

+$4.37

Record

33%

340-676 (1016)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rincon/Batalla

Invested

$233.33

Value

$245.83

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rincon/Batalla

Invested

$125.89

Value

$126.72

PnL

+$0.83

Record

36%

558-990 (1548)

38791873984189CTR

Rincon/Batalla

Invested

$222.2

Value

$84.06

PnL

-$24.14

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Hidalgo/Molteni

Invested

$16

Value

$20

PnL

+$4

Record

84%

437-84 (521)

ferdinand2<$100

Hidalgo/Molteni

Invested

$10.47

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

1338-1368 (2706)

Research grade

NeutralRincon/Batalla at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rincon/Batalla

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hidalgo/Molteni 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rincon/Batalla. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHidalgo/Molteni 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRincon/Batalla 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Hidalgo/Molteni 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rincon/Batalla wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.