Brisbane 3 (Doubles): Falck/Suarez vs Puttergill/Sweeny

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falck/Suarez (45%) · Falck/Suarez at 98¢ · $183K held · ends Nov 19

Falck/Suarez98¢Puttergill/Sweeny2¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falck/Suarez

Consensus Traders

Falck/Suarez 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$183.4K

Combined PnL

$43.9K

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 97.5¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalck/Suarez at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falck/Suarez

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Falck/Suarez98%

Puttergill/Sweeny3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falck/Suarez5 traders

Total Value$134.2K

Total Shares136,973

Combined PnL+$33.0K

Puttergill/Sweeny6 traders

Total Value$44.3K

Total Shares130,945

Combined PnL+$11.0K

Falck/Suarez — 45%Puttergill/Sweeny — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Falck/Suarez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePuttergill/Sweeny 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFalck/Suarez 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPuttergill/Sweeny 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Puttergill/Sweeny 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Falck/Suarezavg 75.8¢	$96.3K	$124.6K	+$28.2K	62% 228-139 (367)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 24¢	$24.0K	$43.0K	+$19.0K	51% 3760-3565 (7325)
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918	Falck/Suarezavg 48.6¢	$4.5K	$9.1K	+$4.6K	50% 18-18 (36)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Falck/Suarezavg 68.9¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$71.34	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ Puttergill/Sweeny leg	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 37.4¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$300.22
└ Falck/Suarez leg	Falck/Suarezavg 68.9¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$371.56
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 41.9¢	$1.3K	$879	-$81	54% 410-348 (758)
└ Puttergill/Sweeny leg	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 41.9¢	$440.32	$451.5	-$73.5
└ Falck/Suarez leg	Falck/Suarezavg 54¢	$405	$427.5	-$7.5
SL SlickRick123CTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 50.8¢	$3.2K	$775.66	$-2.4K	26% 172-481 (653)
alpheclabs2	Falck/Suarezavg 69.6¢	$377.39	$523.2	+$145.81	44% 171-217 (388)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 25¢	$5.6K	$444.36	$-5.1K	52% 2597-2438 (5035)
SM smithagentCTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 22.5¢	$354.94	$55.14	-$299.8	43% 321-434 (755)
38 38791873984189CTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 29.8¢	$403.28	$24.69	-$81.18	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Falck/Suarezavg 66.1¢	$25.74	$23.14	-$2.59	32% 276-598 (874)
dips.CTR	Puttergill/Sweenyavg 25.5¢	$147.86	$17.37	-$130.49	45% 506-615 (1121)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Falck/Suarezavg 75¢	$15	$11.4	-$3.6	82% 351-77 (428)

Woaifacai

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$96,343.2

Value

$124.6K

PnL

+$28.2K

Record

62%

228-139 (367)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$23,972.2

Value

$43.0K

PnL

+$19.0K

Record

51%

3760-3565 (7325)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$4,500

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$4,150.96

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$71.34

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

Puttergill/Sweeny$2,003.9637.4¢+$300.22

Falck/Suarez$2,14768.9¢-$371.56

NotJumpARB<$100

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$1,325

Value

$879

PnL

-$81

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

Puttergill/Sweeny$440.3241.9¢-$73.5

Falck/Suarez$40554¢-$7.5

SlickRick123CTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$3,154.6

Value

$775.66

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

26%

172-481 (653)

alpheclabs2

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$377.39

Value

$523.2

PnL

+$145.81

Record

44%

171-217 (388)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$5,554.55

Value

$444.36

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

52%

2597-2438 (5035)

smithagentCTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$354.94

Value

$55.14

PnL

-$299.8

Record

43%

321-434 (755)

38791873984189CTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$403.28

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$81.18

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$25.74

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$2.59

Record

32%

276-598 (874)

dips.CTR

Puttergill/Sweeny

Invested

$147.86

Value

$17.37

PnL

-$130.49

Record

45%

506-615 (1121)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Falck/Suarez

Invested

$15

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$3.6

Record

82%

351-77 (428)

Research grade

NeutralFalck/Suarez at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Falck/Suarez

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Falck/Suarez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePuttergill/Sweeny 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFalck/Suarez 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPuttergill/Sweeny 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Puttergill/Sweeny 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falck/Suarez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.