Monastir: Branko Djuric vs Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Tepmahc (72%) · Nicolas Tepmahc at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Branko Djuric<1¢Nicolas Tepmahc>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Tepmahc

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Tepmahc 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$205.25

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Tepmahc at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Branko Djuric0%

Nicolas Tepmahc100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Tepmahc13 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,958

Combined PnL+$502.75

Branko Djuric5 traders

Total Value$58.16

Total Shares747

Combined PnL-$297.5

Nicolas Tepmahc — 72%Branko Djuric — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 90¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$338.07	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
LI Limousin	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 77.9¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$356	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 71.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$202.59	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
MA MadridTime	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 80.7¢	$509.87	$627.51	+$117.64	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
LI LightParadox	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 58.1¢	$295.34	$508.43	+$213.1	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 73.7¢	$413.44	$230.31	-$72.13	58% 231-170 (401)
└ Nicolas Tepmahc leg	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 73.7¢	$205.34	$174.06	-$59.38
└ Branko Djuric leg	Branko Djuricavg 21.7¢	$32.5	$56.25	-$12.75
TH thestingsnake	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 70.9¢	$310.44	$188.12	-$71.12	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 66¢	$58.05	$84.96	+$26.91	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
VE Venusian<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 83.7¢	$61.11	$69.99	+$8.88	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 64.7¢	$96.72	$57.53	-$39.2	56% 9021-7117 (16138)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 70.3¢	$36.41	$46.01	+$9.6	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
machinelearned<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 90.5¢	$65.57	$40.02	-$25.55	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
EF efntrick<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 34¢	$20.4	$36	+$1.2	49% 3736-3960 (7696)
TRCM<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 96.2¢	$32.71	$33.98	+$1.28	55% 4139-3333 (7472)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 97¢	$10	$10.3	+$0.3	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 30.3¢	$10.77	$0.33	+$1.25	56% 1995-1542 (3537)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Branko Djuricavg 41.5¢	$216.5	$0.26	-$216.24	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 63.2¢	$31.86	$0.03	-$31.83	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Branko Djuricavg 48.2¢	$11.49	$0.01	-$11.48	52% 6198-5722 (11920)

Flaznorp

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,969.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$338.07

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

Limousin

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,257.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$356

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

38791873984189

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$1,179.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$202.59

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

MadridTime

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$509.87

Value

$627.51

PnL

+$117.64

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

LightParadox

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$295.34

Value

$508.43

PnL

+$213.1

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$413.44

Value

$230.31

PnL

-$72.13

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

Both legs:

Nicolas Tepmahc$205.3473.7¢-$59.38

Branko Djuric$32.521.7¢-$12.75

thestingsnake

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$310.44

Value

$188.12

PnL

-$71.12

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$58.05

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$26.91

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

Venusian<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$61.11

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$8.88

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$96.72

Value

$57.53

PnL

-$39.2

Record

56%

9021-7117 (16138)

Eulhunter<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$36.41

Value

$46.01

PnL

+$9.6

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

machinelearned<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$65.57

Value

$40.02

PnL

-$25.55

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

efntrick<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$20.4

Value

$36

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

3736-3960 (7696)

TRCM<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$32.71

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$1.28

Record

55%

4139-3333 (7472)

pauleta23<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$10

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$10.77

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

1995-1542 (3537)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Branko Djuric

Invested

$216.5

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$216.24

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$31.86

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$31.83

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Branko Djuric

Invested

$11.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$11.48

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Tepmahc at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Tepmahc

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Tepmahc wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.