Bratislava 2: Laslo Djere vs Edas Butvilas

17 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Laslo Djere (59%) · Laslo Djere at 99¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 9

Laslo Djere>99¢Edas Butvilas<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Laslo Djere

Consensus Traders

Laslo Djere 59%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.1K

Combined PnL

$8.8K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 99.4¢

+40% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralLaslo Djere at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Laslo Djere

17 of 29 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laslo Djere99%

Edas Butvilas1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Edas Butvilas12 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares22,575

Combined PnL+$8.4K

Laslo Djere17 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares18,954

Combined PnL+$396.63

Edas Butvilas — 41%Laslo Djere — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Edas Butvilasavg 18.9¢	$2.3K	$10.2K	+$7.9K	24% 102-321 (423)
RN1ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 75.1¢	$10.6K	$8.6K	$-2.0K	53% 59009-51318 (110327)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 75.1¢	$7.2K	$5.8K	$-1.4K
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 48.5¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$621.14
65 6512395314597884	Laslo Djereavg 66¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$19.95	51% 4502-4378 (8880)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 51.1¢	$4.2K	$4.8K	+$600.96	46% 1294-1489 (2783)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 51.1¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$121.98
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 13.6¢	$265.52	$988.46	+$722.94
MA MadridTimeCTR	Edas Butvilasavg 63.5¢	$3.2K	$4.2K	+$1.1K	52% 825-766 (1591)
PA Paul973973	Laslo Djereavg 96.6¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$25.59	89% 962-123 (1085)
BL blket	Laslo Djereavg 62.2¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$69.24	68% 614-284 (898)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Laslo Djereavg 67.5¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$492.4	52% 6707-6232 (12939)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 34.5¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$714.35	56% 935-734 (1669)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 81.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$42.77
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 34.5¢	$1.3K	$583.2	-$757.12
38 38791873984189CTR	Edas Butvilasavg 30¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$122.67	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 49.9¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$260.24	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 49.9¢	$801.1	$754.09	-$47.01
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 72.3¢	$799.62	$586.38	-$213.23
NO NotJumpCTR	Edas Butvilasavg 68.5¢	$3.5K	$1.1K	-$443.71	44% 10214-13265 (23479)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 29.8¢	$1.1K	$855.65	-$216.63	54% 901-783 (1684)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 63.6¢	$379.15	$507.03	+$127.88
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 29.8¢	$693.13	$348.62	-$344.51
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Edas Butvilasavg 60¢	$688.69	$545.25	-$143.44	57% 237-179 (416)
EU Eulhunter	Laslo Djereavg 52.2¢	$570.98	$541.03	-$29.95	54% 6050-5056 (11106)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Edas Butvilasavg 73.4¢	$695.09	$334.86	-$115.93	60% 4217-2820 (7037)
SU suntori	Laslo Djereavg 54.9¢	$263.08	$316.62	+$100.96	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 54¢	$553.54	$283.31	-$270.23	53% 913-807 (1720)
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 81.8¢	$170.08	$176.8	+$6.72
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 54¢	$383.46	$106.51	-$276.95
1L 1lovejump	Laslo Djereavg 50.5¢	$266.98	$189.51	+$2.67	52% 700-639 (1339)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Laslo Djereavg 65¢	$148.6	$134.39	-$14.21	52% 14113-12889 (27002)
TRCMARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 32.4¢	$112.06	$129.15	+$17.09	55% 3997-3226 (7223)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 32.4¢	$60.13	$98.34	+$38.21
└ Edas Butvilas leg	Edas Butvilasavg 79.2¢	$51.93	$30.81	-$21.12
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 34¢	$27.88	$66.41	+$1.23	58% 30450-22247 (52697)
FA Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100	Laslo Djereavg 61.3¢	$70.66	$50.66	-$10.15	68% 336-155 (491)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Laslo Djereavg 63.7¢	$55.39	$45.96	-$9.43	57% 18977-14039 (33016)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Edas Butvilasavg 21¢	$66.65	$45.53	-$21.12	47% 10547-11790 (22337)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$2,259.66

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

24%

102-321 (423)

RN1ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$10,582.41

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

59009-51318 (110327)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$7,245.7675.1¢$-1.4K

Edas Butvilas$3,336.6548.5¢-$621.14

6512395314597884

Laslo Djere

Invested

$6,480.2

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$19.95

Record

51%

4502-4378 (8880)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$4,209.92

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$600.96

Record

46%

1294-1489 (2783)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$3,944.451.1¢-$121.98

Edas Butvilas$265.5213.6¢+$722.94

MadridTimeCTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$3,174.9

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

Paul973973

Laslo Djere

Invested

$4,215.56

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$25.59

Record

89%

962-123 (1085)

blket

Laslo Djere

Invested

$2,548.75

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$69.24

Record

68%

614-284 (898)

CandleHammerDrums

Laslo Djere

Invested

$1,330.61

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$492.4

Record

52%

6707-6232 (12939)

LimousinARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$2,422.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$714.35

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$1,082.6381.8¢+$42.77

Laslo Djere$1,340.3234.5¢-$757.12

38791873984189CTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$1,678.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$122.67

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$1,600.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$260.24

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$801.149.9¢-$47.01

Laslo Djere$799.6272.3¢-$213.23

NotJumpCTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$3,511.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$443.71

Record

44%

10214-13265 (23479)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$1,072.28

Value

$855.65

PnL

-$216.63

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$379.1563.6¢+$127.88

Laslo Djere$693.1329.8¢-$344.51

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$688.69

Value

$545.25

PnL

-$143.44

Record

57%

237-179 (416)

Eulhunter

Laslo Djere

Invested

$570.98

Value

$541.03

PnL

-$29.95

Record

54%

6050-5056 (11106)

thestingsnakeCTR

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$695.09

Value

$334.86

PnL

-$115.93

Record

60%

4217-2820 (7037)

suntori

Laslo Djere

Invested

$263.08

Value

$316.62

PnL

+$100.96

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

VenusianARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$553.54

Value

$283.31

PnL

-$270.23

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

Both legs:

Edas Butvilas$170.0881.8¢+$6.72

Laslo Djere$383.4654¢-$276.95

1lovejump

Laslo Djere

Invested

$266.98

Value

$189.51

PnL

+$2.67

Record

52%

700-639 (1339)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Laslo Djere

Invested

$148.6

Value

$134.39

PnL

-$14.21

Record

52%

14113-12889 (27002)

TRCMARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$112.06

Value

$129.15

PnL

+$17.09

Record

55%

3997-3226 (7223)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$60.1332.4¢+$38.21

Edas Butvilas$51.9379.2¢-$21.12

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$27.88

Value

$66.41

PnL

+$1.23

Record

58%

30450-22247 (52697)

Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$70.66

Value

$50.66

PnL

-$10.15

Record

68%

336-155 (491)

BillBenter2026<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$55.39

Value

$45.96

PnL

-$9.43

Record

57%

18977-14039 (33016)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Edas Butvilas

Invested

$66.65

Value

$45.53

PnL

-$21.12

Record

47%

10547-11790 (22337)

Research grade

NeutralLaslo Djere at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Laslo Djere

17 of 29 top traders (59%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Laslo Djere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.