Brisbane 3: Matthew Dellavedova vs Thomas Fancutt

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew Dellavedova (69%) · Matthew Dellavedova at 70¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 17

Matthew Dellavedova70¢Thomas Fancutt30¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matthew Dellavedova

Consensus Traders

Matthew Dellavedova 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$864.95

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 69.8¢

-6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatthew Dellavedova at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matthew Dellavedova

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matthew Dellavedova70%

Thomas Fancutt30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matthew Dellavedova11 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares10,388

Combined PnL+$653.38

Thomas Fancutt5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,313

Combined PnL+$211.57

Matthew Dellavedova — 69%Thomas Fancutt — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Matthew Dellavedova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMatthew Dellavedova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMatthew Dellavedova 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatthew Dellavedova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Matthew Dellavedova 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 74.7¢	$4.4K	$5.1K	+$664.05	43% 131-176 (307)
RN1	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 72.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$16.15	52% 287-270 (557)
38 38791873984189	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 72.4¢	$791.25	$808.08	+$16.82	49% 427-449 (876)
VE VenusianCTR	Thomas Fancuttavg 24.5¢	$717.05	$714.16	-$2.89	27% 128-350 (478)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 82.3¢	$502.81	$463.98	-$38.83	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Matthew Dellavedova leg	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 82.3¢	$372.58	$339.64	-$32.94
└ Thomas Fancutt leg	Thomas Fancuttavg 26.2¢	$130.23	$124.34	-$5.88
LI LightParadoxCTR	Thomas Fancuttavg 19.7¢	$297.88	$455.57	+$157.69	28% 130-331 (461)
MA MadridTime	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 87.3¢	$446.51	$405.42	-$41.09	26% 121-344 (465)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 77.7¢	$196.18	$254.99	+$66.82	26% 127-363 (490)
└ Matthew Dellavedova leg	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 77.7¢	$139.65	$135.95	-$3.96
└ Thomas Fancutt leg	Thomas Fancuttavg 9.9¢	$48.26	$119.04	+$70.78
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 83.2¢	$212.54	$212.51	-$0.03	37% 50-86 (136)
└ Matthew Dellavedova leg	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 83.2¢	$192.14	$167.92	-$24.22
└ Thomas Fancutt leg	Thomas Fancuttavg 12.5¢	$20.39	$44.59	+$24.2
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Thomas Fancuttavg 21.3¢	$158.08	$200.78	+$49.22	23% 43-145 (188)
TH thirdt1me	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 76.6¢	$229.8	$109.13	-$0.68	33% 34-68 (102)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 24.9¢	$30.89	$34.55	+$3.66	33% 108-219 (327)
PA Pan9X<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 81¢	$37.95	$34.25	-$0.19	49% 193-198 (391)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 85.1¢	$38.3	$32.47	-$6.3	13% 40-279 (319)
VeryLucky888<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 79¢	$26.65	$27.1	+$0.45	52% 119-110 (229)
BA babybells<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 71¢	$27.24	$20.24	+$5.19	21% 47-172 (219)
SE sentrio<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 82.8¢	$17.08	$19.05	-$0.67	28% 99-254 (353)
tradecraft<$100	Matthew Dellavedovaavg 95¢	$17.74	$16.51	-$0.35	18% 63-288 (351)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 11¢	$3.3	$7.19	+$3.88	20% 50-202 (252)

6512395314597884

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$4,446.78

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$664.05

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

RN1

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$1,873.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$16.15

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

38791873984189

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$791.25

Value

$808.08

PnL

+$16.82

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

VenusianCTR

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$717.05

Value

$714.16

PnL

-$2.89

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$502.81

Value

$463.98

PnL

-$38.83

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Matthew Dellavedova$372.5882.3¢-$32.94

Thomas Fancutt$130.2326.2¢-$5.88

LightParadoxCTR

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$297.88

Value

$455.57

PnL

+$157.69

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

MadridTime

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$446.51

Value

$405.42

PnL

-$41.09

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

LimousinARB<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$196.18

Value

$254.99

PnL

+$66.82

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

Both legs:

Matthew Dellavedova$139.6577.7¢-$3.96

Thomas Fancutt$48.269.9¢+$70.78

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$212.54

Value

$212.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

50-86 (136)

Both legs:

Matthew Dellavedova$192.1483.2¢-$24.22

Thomas Fancutt$20.3912.5¢+$24.2

thestingsnakeCTR

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$158.08

Value

$200.78

PnL

+$49.22

Record

23%

43-145 (188)

thirdt1me

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$229.8

Value

$109.13

PnL

-$0.68

Record

33%

34-68 (102)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$30.89

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$3.66

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

Pan9X<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$37.95

Value

$34.25

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

BillBenter2026<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$38.3

Value

$32.47

PnL

-$6.3

Record

13%

40-279 (319)

VeryLucky888<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$26.65

Value

$27.1

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

babybells<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$27.24

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$5.19

Record

21%

47-172 (219)

sentrio<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$17.08

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$0.67

Record

28%

99-254 (353)

tradecraft<$100

Matthew Dellavedova

Invested

$17.74

Value

$16.51

PnL

-$0.35

Record

18%

63-288 (351)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$3.3

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$3.88

Record

20%

50-202 (252)

Research grade

NeutralMatthew Dellavedova at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Matthew Dellavedova

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Matthew Dellavedova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMatthew Dellavedova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMatthew Dellavedova 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatthew Dellavedova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Matthew Dellavedova 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matthew Dellavedova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.9%

69.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.