Brisbane 3: Jake Delaney vs Juncheng Shang

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Juncheng Shang (77%) · Juncheng Shang at 81¢ · $896 held · ends Nov 16

Jake Delaney20¢Juncheng Shang80¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Juncheng Shang

Consensus Traders

Juncheng Shang 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$895.79

Combined PnL

-$4.91

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 80.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateJuncheng Shang at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jake Delaney20%

Juncheng Shang81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juncheng Shang10 traders

Total Value$659.74

Total Shares806

Combined PnL-$13.88

Jake Delaney3 traders

Total Value$93.78

Total Shares445

Combined PnL+$8.97

Juncheng Shang — 77%Jake Delaney — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuncheng Shang 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Juncheng Shangavg 82.1¢	$273.29	$266.42	-$6.87	49% 427-449 (876)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 81¢	$145.03	$142.27	+$2.85	53% 330-294 (624)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 81¢	$113.53	$110.02	+$2.1
└ Jake Delaney leg	Jake Delaneyavg 21¢	$31.5	$32.25	+$0.75
VeryLucky888<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 81.5¢	$81.46	$82.46	+$1	52% 119-110 (229)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 83.5¢	$82.64	$81.61	-$1.03	33% 108-219 (327)
LI LightParadox<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 81¢	$79.38	$76.93	-$2.45	28% 130-331 (461)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 18.3¢	$45.03	$53	+$7.97	26% 127-363 (490)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 83.8¢	$46.75	$46.59	-$0.16	37% 50-86 (136)
0xheavy888<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 83¢	$43.65	$43.39	-$0.26	69% 34-15 (49)
MA MadridTime<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 84¢	$43.95	$41.07	-$2.88	26% 121-344 (465)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 20¢	$30	$30.75	+$0.75	33% 34-68 (102)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 85.3¢	$12.8	$12	-$0.8	13% 40-279 (319)
RN1CTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 20¢	$9.78	$10.03	+$0.24	52% 287-270 (557)
VE Venusian<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 87¢	$5.61	$5.16	-$0.45	27% 128-350 (478)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.13	+$0.03	18% 55-248 (303)

38791873984189

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$273.29

Value

$266.42

PnL

-$6.87

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$145.03

Value

$142.27

PnL

+$2.85

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$113.5381¢+$2.1

Jake Delaney$31.521¢+$0.75

VeryLucky888<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$81.46

Value

$82.46

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$82.64

Value

$81.61

PnL

-$1.03

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

LightParadox<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$79.38

Value

$76.93

PnL

-$2.45

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$45.03

Value

$53

PnL

+$7.97

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$46.75

Value

$46.59

PnL

-$0.16

Record

37%

50-86 (136)

0xheavy888<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$43.65

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$0.26

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

MadridTime<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$43.95

Value

$41.07

PnL

-$2.88

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$30

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

33%

34-68 (102)

BillBenter2026<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.8

Record

13%

40-279 (319)

RN1CTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$9.78

Value

$10.03

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Venusian<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.45

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

ameisgoat11<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

Research candidateJuncheng Shang at 81%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuncheng Shang 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juncheng Shang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.