Hersonissos 3: Cezar Cretu vs Philip Henning

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Henning (35%) · Philip Henning at 62¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 19

Cezar Cretu39¢Philip Henning61¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Philip Henning

Consensus Traders

Philip Henning 35%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$72.93

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 61.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPhilip Henning at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Henning

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cezar Cretu39%

Philip Henning62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Philip Henning6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares8,957

Combined PnL-$191.63

Cezar Cretu11 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,365

Combined PnL+$118.7

Philip Henning — 35%Cezar Cretu — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Philip Henningavg 58.9¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$167.33	33% 14-28 (42)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cezar Cretuavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$150.57	51% 2043-1952 (3995)
RN1	Philip Henningavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$23.81	56% 4466-3442 (7908)
TH thestingsnake	Philip Henningavg 60.4¢	$390.82	$394.7	+$6.64	29% 164-394 (558)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 35.8¢	$335.21	$350.11	+$14.91	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
└ Cezar Cretu leg	Cezar Cretuavg 35.8¢	$251.9	$270.86	+$18.96
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 64.6¢	$83.3	$79.25	-$4.05
VeryLucky888CTR	Cezar Cretuavg 34¢	$358.55	$326.4	+$0.95	52% 737-689 (1426)
machinelearnedCTR	Cezar Cretuavg 44.2¢	$265	$231	-$34	42% 643-890 (1533)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 40.1¢	$201.03	$189.93	+$4.89	35% 91-166 (257)
└ Cezar Cretu leg	Cezar Cretuavg 40.1¢	$103.39	$99.2	-$4.24
└ Philip Henning leg	Philip Henningavg 55.3¢	$81.6	$90.74	+$9.14
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Cezar Cretuavg 34¢	$119.95	$119.95	-$0	61% 953-606 (1559)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 34¢	$72.01	$72.01	-$0	54% 266-226 (492)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 40.2¢	$44.99	$49.19	+$4.2	50% 131-132 (263)
tradecraft<$100	Philip Henningavg 66¢	$45.05	$39.93	-$5.12	21% 172-632 (804)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Philip Henningavg 64¢	$26.24	$23.99	-$2.25	50% 3533-3499 (7032)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 38¢	$20.9	$18.7	-$2.2	33% 544-1092 (1636)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 35¢	$11.2	$10.88	-$0.32	49% 1068-1120 (2188)
SE sentrio<$100	Philip Henningavg 63¢	$5.08	$5.33	+$0.24	41% 533-763 (1296)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 37.8¢	$4.7	$4.23	-$0.47	32% 528-1110 (1638)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 39¢	$2	$1.97	-$0.03	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.7	+$0	37% 472-787 (1259)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Philip Henning

Invested

$3,424.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$167.33

Record

33%

14-28 (42)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$2,057.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$150.57

Record

51%

2043-1952 (3995)

RN1

Philip Henning

Invested

$1,380.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$23.81

Record

56%

4466-3442 (7908)

thestingsnake

Philip Henning

Invested

$390.82

Value

$394.7

PnL

+$6.64

Record

29%

164-394 (558)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$335.21

Value

$350.11

PnL

+$14.91

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

Both legs:

Cezar Cretu$251.935.8¢+$18.96

Philip Henning$83.364.6¢-$4.05

VeryLucky888CTR

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$358.55

Value

$326.4

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

machinelearnedCTR

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$265

Value

$231

PnL

-$34

Record

42%

643-890 (1533)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$201.03

Value

$189.93

PnL

+$4.89

Record

35%

91-166 (257)

Both legs:

Cezar Cretu$103.3940.1¢-$4.24

Philip Henning$81.655.3¢+$9.14

darkumbreon88CTR

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$119.95

Value

$119.95

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

953-606 (1559)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$72.01

Value

$72.01

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

266-226 (492)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$44.99

Value

$49.19

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

131-132 (263)

tradecraft<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$45.05

Value

$39.93

PnL

-$5.12

Record

21%

172-632 (804)

6512395314597884<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$26.24

Value

$23.99

PnL

-$2.25

Record

50%

3533-3499 (7032)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$20.9

Value

$18.7

PnL

-$2.2

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

1068-1120 (2188)

sentrio<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.24

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.47

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

472-787 (1259)

Research grade

NeutralPhilip Henning at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Henning

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Philip Henning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.