Helsinki: Cezar Cretu vs Felix Alopaeus

20 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Cezar Cretu (74%) · Cezar Cretu at 88¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 22

Cezar Cretu88¢Felix Alopaeus12¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cezar Cretu

Consensus Traders

Cezar Cretu 74%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$123.56

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 88¢

+4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralCezar Cretu at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cezar Cretu

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cezar Cretu88%

Felix Alopaeus12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cezar Cretu20 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares24,088

Combined PnL+$326.4

Felix Alopaeus7 traders

Total Value$306.55

Total Shares2,432

Combined PnL-$202.85

Cezar Cretu — 74%Felix Alopaeus — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Cezar Cretu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCezar Cretu 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCezar Cretu 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedCezar Cretu 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Cezar Cretu 74% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cezar Cretuavg 87.9¢	$11.3K	$11.6K	+$353.9	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
TH thestingsnake	Cezar Cretuavg 85.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$95.22	36% 247-448 (695)
NO NotJump	Cezar Cretuavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Cezar Cretuavg 90¢	$3.0K	$1.2K	-$196.08	49% 629-659 (1288)
TRCM	Cezar Cretuavg 79¢	$984.52	$1.1K	+$137.09	17% 95-458 (553)
MA MadridTime	Cezar Cretuavg 82.9¢	$825.94	$868.67	+$42.73	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LI Limousin	Cezar Cretuavg 83.5¢	$771.89	$813.03	+$41.14	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
VE Venusian	Cezar Cretuavg 75¢	$586.53	$661.2	+$74.68	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
BA babybells	Cezar Cretuavg 84¢	$859.26	$618.1	+$9.61	34% 264-519 (783)
FL Flaznorp	Cezar Cretuavg 89.9¢	$663.87	$614.4	-$49.47	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Cezar Cretuavg 73.9¢	$381.31	$456.35	+$75.04	41% 718-1033 (1751)
38 38791873984189	Cezar Cretuavg 89.3¢	$3.3K	$301.34	-$287.28	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
EU Eulhunter	Cezar Cretuavg 86¢	$221.88	$232.2	+$10.32	53% 212-190 (402)
SU suntori	Cezar Cretuavg 91¢	$190.47	$185.24	-$5.23	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Cezar Cretuavg 85.4¢	$185.11	$150.08	+$8.63	46% 467-554 (1021)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Felix Alopaeusavg 17.7¢	$672.89	$111.23	-$157.67	48% 371-403 (774)
LI LightParadox<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 82.9¢	$93	$99.33	+$6.33	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Felix Alopaeusavg 10.3¢	$61.38	$68.31	+$6.93	37% 93-159 (252)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Felix Alopaeusavg 11.4¢	$67.62	$67.95	+$0.33	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
Basquetipster<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 94¢	$64.86	$62.1	-$2.76	17% 17-84 (101)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Felix Alopaeusavg 22¢	$87.04	$48.09	-$38.95	46% 621-730 (1351)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Felix Alopaeusavg 27.3¢	$20.5	$7.5	-$13	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL flatbarrel<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 85¢	$11.66	$4.66	-$1.49	13% 59-389 (448)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.5	-$0.15	43% 851-1135 (1986)
PA pauleta23<$100	Cezar Cretuavg 87¢	$4.25	$4.45	+$0.2	42% 555-755 (1310)

RN1

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$11,257.04

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$353.9

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

thestingsnake

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$1,574.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$95.22

Record

36%

247-448 (695)

NotJump

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$1,486

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

CandleHammerDrums

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$3,035.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$196.08

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

TRCM

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$984.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$137.09

Record

17%

95-458 (553)

MadridTime

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$825.94

Value

$868.67

PnL

+$42.73

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Limousin

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$771.89

Value

$813.03

PnL

+$41.14

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Venusian

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$586.53

Value

$661.2

PnL

+$74.68

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

babybells

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$859.26

Value

$618.1

PnL

+$9.61

Record

34%

264-519 (783)

Flaznorp

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$663.87

Value

$614.4

PnL

-$49.47

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$381.31

Value

$456.35

PnL

+$75.04

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

38791873984189

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$3,281.28

Value

$301.34

PnL

-$287.28

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Eulhunter

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$221.88

Value

$232.2

PnL

+$10.32

Record

53%

212-190 (402)

suntori

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$190.47

Value

$185.24

PnL

-$5.23

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$185.11

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$8.63

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

thirdt1meCTR

Felix Alopaeus

Invested

$672.89

Value

$111.23

PnL

-$157.67

Record

48%

371-403 (774)

LightParadox<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$93

Value

$99.33

PnL

+$6.33

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Felix Alopaeus

Invested

$61.38

Value

$68.31

PnL

+$6.93

Record

37%

93-159 (252)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Felix Alopaeus

Invested

$67.62

Value

$67.95

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Basquetipster<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$64.86

Value

$62.1

PnL

-$2.76

Record

17%

17-84 (101)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Felix Alopaeus

Invested

$87.04

Value

$48.09

PnL

-$38.95

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Felix Alopaeus

Invested

$20.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$13

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

flatbarrel<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$11.66

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$1.49

Record

13%

59-389 (448)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

pauleta23<$100

Cezar Cretu

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

42%

555-755 (1310)

Research grade

NeutralCezar Cretu at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cezar Cretu

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Cezar Cretu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCezar Cretu 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCezar Cretu 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedCezar Cretu 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Cezar Cretu 74% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cezar Cretu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.