Metz: Lenny Couturier vs Jonas Forejtek

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (55%) · Jonas Forejtek at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Lenny Couturier2¢Jonas Forejtek98¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 55%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$4.77

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 97.7¢

+62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lenny Couturier2%

Jonas Forejtek98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL+$1.45

Lenny Couturier5 traders

Total Value$131.37

Total Shares3,977

Combined PnL-$6.22

Jonas Forejtek — 55%Lenny Couturier — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJonas Forejtek 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Jonas Forejtekavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.1	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 95.5¢	$95.5	$96.1	+$0.6	53% 217-191 (408)
GA Gaditima<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 94¢	$86.72	$88.65	+$1.94	49% 386-404 (790)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 95.4¢	$81.76	$82.69	+$0.93	56% 4162-3255 (7417)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lenny Couturieravg 3.7¢	$1.1K	$72.34	+$11.36	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Lenny Couturieravg 3¢	$42.08	$37.94	-$4.14	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
Basquetipster<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 96¢	$24	$24.03	+$0.02	18% 18-84 (102)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Lenny Couturieravg 4.3¢	$25.12	$13.7	-$11.43	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 95.7¢	$12.91	$12.96	+$0.05	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Lenny Couturieravg 2.9¢	$9	$6.93	-$2.07	36% 252-449 (701)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Lenny Couturieravg 3.2¢	$0.39	$0.45	+$0.06	44% 92-115 (207)

NotJump

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Eulhunter<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$95.5

Value

$96.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

Gaditima<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$86.72

Value

$88.65

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$81.76

Value

$82.69

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

4162-3255 (7417)

38791873984189CTR

Lenny Couturier

Invested

$1,110.22

Value

$72.34

PnL

+$11.36

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Lenny Couturier

Invested

$42.08

Value

$37.94

PnL

-$4.14

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Basquetipster<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$24

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$0.02

Record

18%

18-84 (102)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Lenny Couturier

Invested

$25.12

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$11.43

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Pan9X<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$12.91

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Lenny Couturier

Invested

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$2.07

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Lenny Couturier

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

92-115 (207)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Jonas Forejtek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJonas Forejtek 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedJonas Forejtek 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jonas Forejtek 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.