Monastir: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Luka Mikrut

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Luka Mikrut (9%) · Luka Mikrut at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Eliakim Coulibaly50¢Luka Mikrut50¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luka Mikrut

Consensus Traders

Luka Mikrut 9%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$137.05

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

1 of 11 top traders (9%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eliakim Coulibaly50%

Luka Mikrut51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luka Mikrut1 trader

Total Value$493.4

Total Shares858

Combined PnL+$4.29

Eliakim Coulibaly10 traders

Total Value$973.56

Total Shares1,970

Combined PnL+$132.76

Luka Mikrut — 9%Eliakim Coulibaly — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Luka Mikrutavg 57¢	$489.11	$493.4	+$4.29	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 50.4¢	$386.26	$335.7	-$50.56	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 50.4¢	$202.18	$214.67	+$12.49
└ Luka Mikrut leg	Luka Mikrutavg 70.7¢	$184.08	$121.02	-$63.05
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 37.6¢	$187.67	$207.02	+$45.1	23% 112-368 (480)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 39.5¢	$269.12	$197.54	+$10.84	43% 109-146 (255)
machinelearnedCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 42¢	$126	$160.5	+$34.5	39% 480-748 (1228)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.1¢	$129.14	$130.46	+$1.32	30% 368-861 (1229)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.1¢	$93.88	$94.9	+$1.02
└ Luka Mikrut leg	Luka Mikrutavg 59¢	$35.26	$35.56	+$0.3
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.7¢	$110.62	$117.64	+$7.03	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.7¢	$61.47	$80.78	+$19.31
└ Luka Mikrut leg	Luka Mikrutavg 62¢	$49.15	$36.86	-$12.29
MA MadridTimeCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40¢	$92.56	$109.91	+$17.35	31% 373-839 (1212)
BA babybellsCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 43¢	$95.55	$105.64	+$10.09	22% 116-403 (519)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 47.5¢	$74.61	$84	+$9.39	49% 93-96 (189)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40¢	$75.52	$79.9	+$4.38	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 39.9¢	$20.91	$22.56	+$1.65	48% 654-705 (1359)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 35¢	$5.68	$5.11	-$0.57	30% 373-861 (1234)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.38	+$0.02	28% 151-392 (543)

6512395314597884

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$489.11

Value

$493.4

PnL

+$4.29

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$386.26

Value

$335.7

PnL

-$50.56

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$202.1850.4¢+$12.49

Luka Mikrut$184.0870.7¢-$63.05

thestingsnakeCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$187.67

Value

$207.02

PnL

+$45.1

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

thirdt1meCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$269.12

Value

$197.54

PnL

+$10.84

Record

43%

109-146 (255)

machinelearnedCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$126

Value

$160.5

PnL

+$34.5

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$129.14

Value

$130.46

PnL

+$1.32

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$93.8840.1¢+$1.02

Luka Mikrut$35.2659¢+$0.3

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$110.62

Value

$117.64

PnL

+$7.03

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$61.4740.7¢+$19.31

Luka Mikrut$49.1562¢-$12.29

MadridTimeCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$92.56

Value

$109.91

PnL

+$17.35

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

babybellsCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$95.55

Value

$105.64

PnL

+$10.09

Record

22%

116-403 (519)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$74.61

Value

$84

PnL

+$9.39

Record

49%

93-96 (189)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$75.52

Value

$79.9

PnL

+$4.38

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$20.91

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$1.65

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

VenusianCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.57

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

151-392 (543)

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

1 of 11 top traders (9%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luka Mikrut wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.