Villa Maria: Federico Coria vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

9 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Genaro Alberto Olivieri (33%) · Genaro Alberto Olivieri at 52¢ · $172K held · ends Nov 14

Federico Coria49¢Genaro Alberto Olivieri51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Consensus Traders

Genaro Alberto Olivieri 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$172.0K

Combined PnL

$-13.6K

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 51.5¢

-26% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralGenaro Alberto Olivieri at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

9 of 27 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Federico Coria49%

Genaro Alberto Olivieri52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Federico Coria18 traders

Total Value$98.7K

Total Shares203,185

Combined PnL+$10.5K

Genaro Alberto Olivieri9 traders

Total Value$70.5K

Total Shares136,761

Combined PnL$-24.1K

Federico Coria — 67%Genaro Alberto Olivieri — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Federico Coriaavg 51.5¢	$49.6K	$46.8K	$-2.9K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
RN1CTR	Federico Coriaavg 32.2¢	$26.9K	$40.5K	+$13.7K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
OM omnibus-076daa	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 47.4¢	$23.2K	$25.1K	+$2.0K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
SH SharkVision	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 74.5¢	$21.5K	$14.8K	$-6.6K	70% 1472-616 (2088)
0X 0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 80.2¢	$18.5K	$11.9K	$-6.6K	68% 295-142 (437)
CoinTrick	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 99.9¢	$17.2K	$8.9K	$-8.3K	97% 5128-152 (5280)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 72¢	$8.4K	$6.0K	$-2.4K	66% 653-338 (991)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Federico Coriaavg 57.7¢	$4.2K	$3.5K	-$664.88	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Federico Coriaavg 54.5¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$376.59	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
OJ ojg	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 94¢	$3.5K	$1.9K	$-1.6K	43% 838-1096 (1934)
PA pauleta23	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 68.7¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$587.02	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Federico Coriaavg 37.2¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$340.44	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Federico Coria leg	Federico Coriaavg 37.2¢	$862.35	$1.1K	+$261.38
└ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 43.5¢	$426.98	$506.04	+$79.06
FL FlaznorpCTR	Federico Coriaavg 46.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$55.45	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Federico Coriaavg 38.9¢	$834.29	$971.19	+$224.01	56% 1967-1522 (3489)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Federico Coriaavg 36.2¢	$1.3K	$801.25	+$141.12	53% 828-732 (1560)
└ Federico Coria leg	Federico Coriaavg 36.2¢	$347.66	$466.02	+$192.31
└ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 51.1¢	$332.58	$335.22	-$51.19
EU EulhunterCTR	Federico Coriaavg 41¢	$520.57	$615.95	+$95.38	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Federico Coriaavg 55.5¢	$657.81	$402.54	-$64.9	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Federico Coriaavg 53.1¢	$285.67	$302.51	+$16.83	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Federico Coria leg	Federico Coriaavg 53.1¢	$183.45	$167.51	-$15.94
└ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 39¢	$102.23	$134.99	+$32.77
GA GaditimaCTR	Federico Coriaavg 23¢	$115	$242.5	+$127.5	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Federico Coriaavg 15¢	$71.7	$231.35	+$159.64	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Federico Coriaavg 46¢	$165.84	$174.78	+$8.94	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
SH shiifooCTR	Federico Coriaavg 17¢	$49.99	$142.63	+$92.64	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Federico Coriaavg 37¢	$96.4	$126.37	+$29.96	58% 2812-2017 (4829)
LR lryyy<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 92¢	$56.87	$77.62	+$20.75	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
VeryLucky888<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 50¢	$71.88	$74.04	+$2.16	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$49,645.73

Value

$46.8K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

RN1CTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$26,888.07

Value

$40.5K

PnL

+$13.7K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

omnibus-076daa

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$23,159.03

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

SharkVision

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$21,472.69

Value

$14.8K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

70%

1472-616 (2088)

0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$18,474.59

Value

$11.9K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

68%

295-142 (437)

CoinTrick

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$17,191.54

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

97%

5128-152 (5280)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$8,375.94

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

66%

653-338 (991)

MadridTimeCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$4,170.59

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$664.88

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$3,843.33

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$376.59

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

ojg

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$3,517.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

pauleta23

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$2,354.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$587.02

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

LimousinARB<$100

Federico Coria

Invested

$1,289.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$340.44

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Federico Coria$862.3537.2¢+$261.38

Genaro Alberto Olivieri$426.9843.5¢+$79.06

FlaznorpCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$1,268.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$55.45

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

SchruteBucksCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$834.29

Value

$971.19

PnL

+$224.01

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Federico Coria

Invested

$1,308.49

Value

$801.25

PnL

+$141.12

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

Both legs:

Federico Coria$347.6636.2¢+$192.31

Genaro Alberto Olivieri$332.5851.1¢-$51.19

EulhunterCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$520.57

Value

$615.95

PnL

+$95.38

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

thestingsnakeCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$657.81

Value

$402.54

PnL

-$64.9

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Federico Coria

Invested

$285.67

Value

$302.51

PnL

+$16.83

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Federico Coria$183.4553.1¢-$15.94

Genaro Alberto Olivieri$102.2339¢+$32.77

GaditimaCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$115

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$127.5

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$71.7

Value

$231.35

PnL

+$159.64

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$165.84

Value

$174.78

PnL

+$8.94

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

shiifooCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$49.99

Value

$142.63

PnL

+$92.64

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

flatbarrelCTR

Federico Coria

Invested

$96.4

Value

$126.37

PnL

+$29.96

Record

58%

2812-2017 (4829)

lryyy<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$56.87

Value

$77.62

PnL

+$20.75

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

VeryLucky888<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$71.88

Value

$74.04

PnL

+$2.16

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralGenaro Alberto Olivieri at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

9 of 27 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Genaro Alberto Olivieri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.