Helsinki: Kimmer Coppejans vs Adrian Oetzbach

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Kimmer Coppejans (56%) · Kimmer Coppejans at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Kimmer Coppejans86¢Adrian Oetzbach14¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kimmer Coppejans

Consensus Traders

Kimmer Coppejans 56%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$47.1

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 85.5¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKimmer Coppejans at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kimmer Coppejans

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kimmer Coppejans86%

Adrian Oetzbach14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kimmer Coppejans9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,125

Combined PnL+$1.55

Adrian Oetzbach7 traders

Total Value$201.77

Total Shares1,774

Combined PnL+$45.55

Kimmer Coppejans — 56%Adrian Oetzbach — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Kimmer Coppejansavg 50.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.02	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kimmer Coppejansavg 87¢	$354.22	$362.9	+$8.69	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
TH thestingsnake	Kimmer Coppejansavg 92.4¢	$238.35	$209.26	-$17.16	35% 239-446 (685)
LI LightParadox	Kimmer Coppejansavg 87¢	$191.84	$192.94	+$1.1	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kimmer Coppejansavg 89.8¢	$165.32	$172.08	+$6.76	56% 4148-3245 (7393)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 8¢	$64	$100	+$36	48% 367-395 (762)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 11¢	$54.25	$56.71	+$2.47	45% 90-110 (200)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 9¢	$14.65	$20.41	+$5.76	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 6¢	$12	$13	+$1	34% 259-513 (772)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Kimmer Coppejansavg 88¢	$6.55	$6.44	-$0.11	46% 607-722 (1329)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Kimmer Coppejansavg 87¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	45% 449-545 (994)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kimmer Coppejansavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.33	-$0.02	43% 845-1130 (1975)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 12¢	$3.9	$4.06	+$0.16	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 12¢	$3.5	$3.94	+$0.44	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Adrian Oetzbachavg 7¢	$3.94	$3.66	-$0.28	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
VeryLucky888<$100	Kimmer Coppejansavg 87¢	$2.61	$2.59	-$0.02	53% 1840-1607 (3447)

NotJump

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$1,074.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.02

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$354.22

Value

$362.9

PnL

+$8.69

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

thestingsnake

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$238.35

Value

$209.26

PnL

-$17.16

Record

35%

239-446 (685)

LightParadox

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$191.84

Value

$192.94

PnL

+$1.1

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$165.32

Value

$172.08

PnL

+$6.76

Record

56%

4148-3245 (7393)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$64

Value

$100

PnL

+$36

Record

48%

367-395 (762)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$54.25

Value

$56.71

PnL

+$2.47

Record

45%

90-110 (200)

VenusianCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$14.65

Value

$20.41

PnL

+$5.76

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

babybellsCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$12

Value

$13

PnL

+$1

Record

34%

259-513 (772)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

607-722 (1329)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

449-545 (994)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

845-1130 (1975)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

LimousinCTR<$100

Adrian Oetzbach

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.28

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

VeryLucky888<$100

Kimmer Coppejans

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

Research grade

NeutralKimmer Coppejans at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kimmer Coppejans

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kimmer Coppejans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.