Helsinki: Jay Clarke vs Arvid Nordquist

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Clarke (55%) · Jay Clarke at 72¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 22

Jay Clarke72¢Arvid Nordquist28¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jay Clarke

Consensus Traders

Jay Clarke 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$471.36

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 71.5¢

+21% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJay Clarke at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Clarke

11 of 20 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jay Clarke72%

Arvid Nordquist28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jay Clarke11 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,582

Combined PnL+$876.24

Arvid Nordquist9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,788

Combined PnL-$404.89

Jay Clarke — 55%Arvid Nordquist — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Jay Clarke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJay Clarke 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Clarke 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jay Clarke 50% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BaltazarGombka	Jay Clarkeavg 70¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$53.57	— 6-1 (7)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 38.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$253.65	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945	Jay Clarkeavg 44¢	$984.89	$1.6K	+$615.56	3% 6-175 (181)
NO NotJump	Jay Clarkeavg 56.7¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$41.52	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
TH thirdt1me	Jay Clarkeavg 57.7¢	$524.62	$470.46	+$31.7	48% 371-403 (774)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 60.6¢	$478.03	$456.51	-$21.52	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 60.6¢	$239.29	$260.53	+$21.24
└ Arvid Nordquist leg	Arvid Nordquistavg 41.4¢	$238.74	$195.97	-$42.77
FL FlaznorpCTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 37.5¢	$408.8	$370.21	-$38.59	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Arvid Nordquistavg 55.7¢	$389.45	$247.26	-$142.19	49% 629-659 (1288)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 67.6¢	$223.2	$226.81	+$3.61	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
└ Arvid Nordquist leg	Arvid Nordquistavg 32.1¢	$108.71	$115.01	+$6.3
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 67.6¢	$114.49	$111.8	-$2.69
BA babybellsARB<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 55.9¢	$223.88	$215.52	-$8.36	34% 264-519 (783)
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 55.9¢	$128.6	$151.8	+$23.2
└ Arvid Nordquist leg	Arvid Nordquistavg 50.8¢	$95.28	$63.72	-$31.56
38 38791873984189	Jay Clarkeavg 55¢	$367.87	$213.96	+$96.09	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SU suntori	Jay Clarkeavg 61¢	$95.23	$111.62	+$16.39	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 50¢	$66.33	$87.55	+$21.22	7% 28-402 (430)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 41.5¢	$92.28	$82.03	-$10.25	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
└ Arvid Nordquist leg	Arvid Nordquistavg 41.5¢	$53.95	$44.2	-$9.75
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 66.9¢	$38.33	$37.83	-$0.5
TRCM<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 55¢	$55	$66	+$11	17% 95-458 (553)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 31.2¢	$45.24	$42.5	+$1.3	36% 247-448 (695)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 21¢	$21	$34	+$13	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 21¢	$21	$34	+$13	56% 663-529 (1192)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 36¢	$30.6	$28.9	-$1.7	53% 212-190 (402)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 20¢	$4.76	$8.1	+$3.33	41% 160-233 (393)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 78¢	$20.21	$7.2	-$1.21	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 79.5¢	$7.95	$6.6	-$1.35	43% 851-1135 (1986)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.7	+$0.6	46% 621-730 (1351)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 73¢	$73	$1.52	-$8.25	27% 196-519 (715)

BaltazarGombka

Jay Clarke

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$53.57

Record

—

6-1 (7)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$2,232.23

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$253.65

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945

Jay Clarke

Invested

$984.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$615.56

Record

6-175 (181)

NotJump

Jay Clarke

Invested

$1,519.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$41.52

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

thirdt1me

Jay Clarke

Invested

$524.62

Value

$470.46

PnL

+$31.7

Record

48%

371-403 (774)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$478.03

Value

$456.51

PnL

-$21.52

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Both legs:

Jay Clarke$239.2960.6¢+$21.24

Arvid Nordquist$238.7441.4¢-$42.77

FlaznorpCTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$408.8

Value

$370.21

PnL

-$38.59

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$389.45

Value

$247.26

PnL

-$142.19

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

LimousinARB<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$223.2

Value

$226.81

PnL

+$3.61

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Both legs:

Arvid Nordquist$108.7132.1¢+$6.3

Jay Clarke$114.4967.6¢-$2.69

babybellsARB<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$223.88

Value

$215.52

PnL

-$8.36

Record

34%

264-519 (783)

Both legs:

Jay Clarke$128.655.9¢+$23.2

Arvid Nordquist$95.2850.8¢-$31.56

38791873984189

Jay Clarke

Invested

$367.87

Value

$213.96

PnL

+$96.09

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

suntori

Jay Clarke

Invested

$95.23

Value

$111.62

PnL

+$16.39

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$66.33

Value

$87.55

PnL

+$21.22

Record

28-402 (430)

VenusianARB<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$92.28

Value

$82.03

PnL

-$10.25

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

Both legs:

Arvid Nordquist$53.9541.5¢-$9.75

Jay Clarke$38.3366.9¢-$0.5

TRCM<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$55

Value

$66

PnL

+$11

Record

17%

95-458 (553)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$45.24

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

36%

247-448 (695)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$21

Value

$34

PnL

+$13

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$21

Value

$34

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$30.6

Value

$28.9

PnL

-$1.7

Record

53%

212-190 (402)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$4.76

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$3.33

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$20.21

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$7.95

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$1.35

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.6

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

SchruteBucks<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$73

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$8.25

Record

27%

196-519 (715)

Research grade

NeutralJay Clarke at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Clarke

11 of 20 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Jay Clarke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJay Clarke 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Clarke 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jay Clarke 50% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jay Clarke wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.