Monastir: Jay Clarke vs Pedro Vives Marcos

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Pedro Vives Marcos (87%) · Pedro Vives Marcos at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 18

Jay Clarke21¢Pedro Vives Marcos79¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pedro Vives Marcos

Consensus Traders

Pedro Vives Marcos 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$406.28

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 79.5¢

+22% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralPedro Vives Marcos at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Vives Marcos

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jay Clarke21%

Pedro Vives Marcos80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pedro Vives Marcos13 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares7,094

Combined PnL+$505.65

Jay Clarke2 traders

Total Value$422.91

Total Shares1,992

Combined PnL-$99.37

Pedro Vives Marcos — 87%Jay Clarke — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 77.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$77	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
38 38791873984189	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 66.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$180.05	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 61.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$166.18	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
└ Pedro Vives Marcos leg	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 61.8¢	$844.31	$1.1K	+$214.71
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 26.4¢	$325.95	$277.42	-$48.54
VE Venusian	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 57¢	$277.53	$391.95	+$114.42	30% 373-861 (1234)
TH thirdt1me	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 74¢	$504.35	$313.78	-$86.57	43% 109-146 (255)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jay Clarkeavg 24.6¢	$311	$258.81	-$52.19	23% 112-368 (480)
CI cigarettes	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 42¢	$210	$237.5	+$27.5	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
MA MadridTime	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 47¢	$111.02	$187.79	+$76.77	31% 373-839 (1212)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jay Clarkeavg 29¢	$211.28	$164.1	-$47.19	53% 1788-1590 (3378)
EU Eulhunter	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 42.5¢	$86.13	$152.77	+$66.64	49% 93-96 (189)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 74.6¢	$158.66	$146.08	-$12.58	22% 116-403 (519)
└ Pedro Vives Marcos leg	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 74.6¢	$114.41	$114.21	-$0.2
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 35.4¢	$44.25	$31.88	-$12.38
VeryLucky888	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 46¢	$145.04	$140.74	+$4.63	52% 441-414 (855)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 67.9¢	$112.59	$109.65	-$2.94	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
LI Limousin<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 52¢	$52.21	$75.31	+$23.09	30% 369-862 (1231)
machinelearned<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 45¢	$67.5	$71.25	+$3.75	39% 480-748 (1228)
LI LightParadox<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 53.7¢	$36.75	$55.07	+$18.32	30% 368-861 (1229)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 44.3¢	$41.67	$44.65	+$2.98	48% 654-705 (1359)

6512395314597884

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$2,094.39

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$77

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

38791873984189

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$1,205.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$180.05

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$1,170.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$166.18

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Both legs:

Pedro Vives Marcos$844.3161.8¢+$214.71

Jay Clarke$325.9526.4¢-$48.54

Venusian

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$277.53

Value

$391.95

PnL

+$114.42

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

thirdt1me

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$504.35

Value

$313.78

PnL

-$86.57

Record

43%

109-146 (255)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jay Clarke

Invested

$311

Value

$258.81

PnL

-$52.19

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

cigarettes

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$210

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

MadridTime

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$111.02

Value

$187.79

PnL

+$76.77

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jay Clarke

Invested

$211.28

Value

$164.1

PnL

-$47.19

Record

53%

1788-1590 (3378)

Eulhunter

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$86.13

Value

$152.77

PnL

+$66.64

Record

49%

93-96 (189)

babybellsARB<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$158.66

Value

$146.08

PnL

-$12.58

Record

22%

116-403 (519)

Both legs:

Pedro Vives Marcos$114.4174.6¢-$0.2

Jay Clarke$44.2535.4¢-$12.38

VeryLucky888

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$145.04

Value

$140.74

PnL

+$4.63

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$112.59

Value

$109.65

PnL

-$2.94

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

Limousin<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$52.21

Value

$75.31

PnL

+$23.09

Record

30%

369-862 (1231)

machinelearned<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$67.5

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

LightParadox<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$36.75

Value

$55.07

PnL

+$18.32

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

Pan9X<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$41.67

Value

$44.65

PnL

+$2.98

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

Research grade

NeutralPedro Vives Marcos at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Vives Marcos

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pedro Vives Marcos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.