Monastir: Jay Clarke vs Maxime Janvier
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Clarke (75%) · Jay Clarke at 68¢ · $42 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Jay Clarke
4
Jay Clarke 75%
$41.54
-$0.05
Research grade
NeutralJay Clarke at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Jay Clarkeavg 68¢ | $20.49 | $20.49 | +$0 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Maxime Janvieravg 31¢ | $13.23 | $13.23 | +$0 | 24% 184-596 (780) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Jay Clarkeavg 68¢ | $4.43 | $4.43 | +$0 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jay Clarkeavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.4 | -$0.05 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
Invested
$20.49
Value
$20.49
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$13.23
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
184-596 (780)
Invested
$4.43
Value
$4.43
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.