Charlottesville: Clement Chidekh vs Stefan Kozlov

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (57%) · Clement Chidekh at 79¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14

Clement Chidekh79¢Stefan Kozlov21¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$4.4K

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 78.5¢

+91% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clement Chidekh79%

Stefan Kozlov22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh4 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares11,330

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Stefan Kozlov3 traders

Total Value$694.29

Total Shares3,229

Combined PnL+$501.93

Clement Chidekh — 57%Stefan Kozlov — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Clement Chidekhavg 36.8¢	$2.4K	$4.4K	+$2.1K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadox	Clement Chidekhavg 43.9¢	$2.4K	$4.2K	+$1.8K	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 50.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$305.49	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 60.3¢	$897.04	$1.2K	+$270.67
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 50.6¢	$1.0K	$426.39	-$576.16
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 65.3¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	-$376.33	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 45.1¢	$650.86	$1.1K	+$285.99
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 65.3¢	$909.01	$299.36	-$662.32
38 38791873984189CTR	Stefan Kozlovavg 41.3¢	$2.3K	$611.52	+$539.83	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTime	Clement Chidekhavg 56.2¢	$533.87	$524.86	-$9.02	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
machinelearned<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 42.3¢	$46.13	$85.51	+$39.38	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
OJ ojgCTR	Stefan Kozlovavg 31.6¢	$118.62	$80.62	-$38.01	43% 838-1096 (1934)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 20.5¢	$2.05	$2.15	+$0.1	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Limousin

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$2,356.9

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadox

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$2,394.92

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$1,899.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$305.49

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Clement Chidekh$897.0460.3¢+$270.67

Stefan Kozlov$1,002.5450.6¢-$576.16

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$2,515.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$376.33

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

Both legs:

Clement Chidekh$650.8645.1¢+$285.99

Stefan Kozlov$909.0165.3¢-$662.32

38791873984189CTR

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$2,255.03

Value

$611.52

PnL

+$539.83

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTime

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$533.87

Value

$524.86

PnL

-$9.02

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

machinelearned<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$46.13

Value

$85.51

PnL

+$39.38

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

ojgCTR

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$118.62

Value

$80.62

PnL

-$38.01

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.