Lima: Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Comesana (60%) · Francisco Comesana at 58¢ · $583 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Francisco Comesana
5
Francisco Comesana 60%
1 arb excluded
$582.9
$2.08
57.6¢ → 58¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFrancisco Comesana at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Comesana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Francisco Comesanaavg 57.5¢ | $432.88 | $436.38 | +$3.5 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Francisco Comesanaavg 57¢ | $69.55 | $70.95 | +$1.39 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
| └ Francisco Comesana leg | Francisco Comesanaavg 57¢ | $44.21 | $44.99 | +$0.78 | |
| └ Marco Cecchinato leg | Marco Cecchinatoavg 41¢ | $25.34 | $25.96 | +$0.62 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Francisco Comesanaavg 58¢ | $27.26 | $27.26 | +$0 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Marco Cecchinatoavg 43¢ | $28.45 | $27.13 | -$1.32 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Francisco Comesanaavg 57.1¢ | $14.4 | $14.62 | +$0.22 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Marco Cecchinatoavg 43¢ | $6.89 | $6.57 | -$0.32 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
Invested
$432.88
Value
$436.38
PnL
+$3.5
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$69.55
Value
$70.95
PnL
+$1.39
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.26
Value
$27.26
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$28.45
Value
$27.13
PnL
-$1.32
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.62
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.57
PnL
-$0.32
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.