Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Carboni, while the market favors Ioannis Xilas (52%). 8 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hersonissos 3: Lorenzo Carboni vs Ioannis Xilas

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Carboni (42%) · Lorenzo Carboni at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 19

Lorenzo Carboni49¢Ioannis Xilas51¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Carboni

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Carboni 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$532.35

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 48.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Ioannis Xilas 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Carboni49%

Ioannis Xilas52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Carboni8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,807

Combined PnL+$544.6

Ioannis Xilas11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,941

Combined PnL-$12.25

Lorenzo Carboni — 42%Ioannis Xilas — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Lorenzo Carboniavg 44¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$543.01	33% 14-28 (42)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$47.52	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50.5¢	$753.18	$753.23	+$0.05
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 54.4¢	$527.1	$479.53	-$47.57
VeryLucky888	Ioannis Xilasavg 56¢	$884.64	$889.72	+$7.92	52% 718-671 (1389)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 48.1¢	$1.2K	$824.85	+$13.19	54% 410-348 (758)
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 48.1¢	$590.23	$472.13	-$118.11
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50.9¢	$291.92	$352.72	+$131.3
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 54.5¢	$672.84	$535.13	-$137.71	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 54.5¢	$575.12	$417.15	-$157.97
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50.1¢	$97.71	$117.98	+$20.26
DA darkumbreon88	Ioannis Xilasavg 56¢	$225.52	$227.53	+$2.01	61% 952-605 (1557)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 51¢	$265.01	$214.01	+$5.28	35% 90-166 (256)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 49.1¢	$101.44	$108.57	+$13.02
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 51¢	$113.18	$105.44	-$7.74
TH thestingsnake	Ioannis Xilasavg 47.9¢	$347.66	$202.35	-$30.73	29% 160-392 (552)
0xheavy888	Ioannis Xilasavg 56¢	$130.2	$130.2	+$0	55% 262-216 (478)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 41.1¢	$75.62	$79.94	+$4.32	40% 234-354 (588)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 59.5¢	$62.85	$53.81	-$2.84	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50¢	$39.41	$44.28	+$4.87	32% 522-1096 (1618)
RN1CTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 59¢	$42.44	$42.8	+$0.36	57% 4429-3409 (7838)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 37.6¢	$13.87	$17.91	+$4.03	50% 129-129 (258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 56¢	$17.36	$17.36	+$0	48% 1025-1095 (2120)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 44¢	$14.45	$14.61	+$0.16	33% 531-1071 (1602)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 57¢	$10	$9.91	-$0.09	50% 86-87 (173)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 61.5¢	$9.05	$8.13	-$0.93	25% 173-515 (688)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50¢	$7	$6.93	-$0.07	50% 3509-3482 (6991)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.65	+$0.05	38% 464-772 (1236)
DV dv-pm<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.8	+$0.1	59% 13-9 (22)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.58	+$0.03	82% 351-77 (428)
LI LightParadox<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	32% 524-1101 (1625)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,541.46

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$543.01

Record

33%

14-28 (42)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,280.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.52

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$753.1850.5¢+$0.05

Ioannis Xilas$527.154.4¢-$47.57

VeryLucky888

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$884.64

Value

$889.72

PnL

+$7.92

Record

52%

718-671 (1389)

NotJumpARB<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$1,205.36

Value

$824.85

PnL

+$13.19

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

Ioannis Xilas$590.2348.1¢-$118.11

Lorenzo Carboni$291.9250.9¢+$131.3

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$672.84

Value

$535.13

PnL

-$137.71

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Ioannis Xilas$575.1254.5¢-$157.97

Lorenzo Carboni$97.7150.1¢+$20.26

darkumbreon88

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$225.52

Value

$227.53

PnL

+$2.01

Record

61%

952-605 (1557)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$265.01

Value

$214.01

PnL

+$5.28

Record

35%

90-166 (256)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$101.4449.1¢+$13.02

Ioannis Xilas$113.1851¢-$7.74

thestingsnake

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$347.66

Value

$202.35

PnL

-$30.73

Record

29%

160-392 (552)

0xheavy888

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$130.2

Value

$130.2

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

262-216 (478)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$75.62

Value

$79.94

PnL

+$4.32

Record

40%

234-354 (588)

suntoriCTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$62.85

Value

$53.81

PnL

-$2.84

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

VenusianCTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$39.41

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$4.87

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

RN1CTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$42.44

Value

$42.8

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

4429-3409 (7838)

Eulhunter<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$13.87

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$4.03

Record

50%

129-129 (258)

Pan9X<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1025-1095 (2120)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$14.45

Value

$14.61

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

531-1071 (1602)

glennyorkshire<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$10

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

86-87 (173)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$9.05

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$0.93

Record

25%

173-515 (688)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

3509-3482 (6991)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

464-772 (1236)

dv-pm<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.03

Record

82%

351-77 (428)

LightParadox<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

32%

524-1101 (1625)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Ioannis Xilas 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Carboni wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.