Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Carlo Alberto Caniato — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Carlo Alberto Caniato

Taranto: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Lorenzo Giustino

Resolved Carlo Alberto Caniato. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Carlo Alberto Caniato. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Carlo Alberto Caniato 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlo Alberto Caniato100%

Lorenzo Giustino0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Giustino13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,503

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Carlo Alberto Caniato15 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares17,485

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Lorenzo Giustino — 46%Carlo Alberto Caniato — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 20.8¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	24% 102-320 (422)
VE Venusian	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 70.3¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$858.53	53% 903-797 (1700)
MA MadridTime	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 80.2¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$747.52	52% 812-758 (1570)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 29.9¢	$3.6K	—	$-3.6K	51% 4501-4377 (8878)
LI LightParadox	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 80.9¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$248.16	53% 889-775 (1664)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 71.3¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	+$432.96	52% 6703-6224 (12927)
38 38791873984189	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 80.6¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$146.19	48% 14349-15848 (30197)
TH thestingsnake	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 57.5¢	$788.93	$1.3K	+$551.71	60% 4211-2814 (7025)
FL Flaznorp	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 76.5¢	$854.62	$799.7	-$54.92	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
LI Limousin	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 76.9¢	$911.21	$1.2K	+$245.62	56% 921-721 (1642)
EU Eulhunter	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 79.5¢	$599.38	$877	+$271.59	54% 6045-5051 (11096)
SU suntoriCTR	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 64.2¢	$676.16	—	-$676.16	45% 13599-16524 (30123)
OM omnibus-076daa	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 81.1¢	$391.79	$480.84	+$89.08	50% 20136-20479 (40615)
alpheclabs2	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 79¢	$177.13	$290.38	+$113.25	47% 1097-1239 (2336)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 80.3¢	$79.72	$73.05	-$6.67	52% 14108-12884 (26992)
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 80.3¢	$58.67	$73.05	+$14.38
└ Lorenzo Giustino leg	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 24.6¢	$21.05	—	-$21.05
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 41.2¢	$26.8	—	-$26.8	50% 4082-4057 (8139)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 34¢	$18.36	—	-$18.36	46% 8222-9595 (17817)
LO looppau<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 99.9¢	$15.59	$15.61	+$0.02	99% 11831-75 (11906)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 36¢	$7.63	—	-$7.63	61% 13921-8934 (22855)
VeryLucky888<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 63¢	$16.55	$9.08	+$3.53	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 34¢	$4.59	—	-$4.52	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
HY hydra1248<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 83.7¢	$3.86	$4.61	+$0.75	65% 48-26 (74)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 63¢	$3.15	$5	+$1.82	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 44.2¢	$1.77	—	-$1.77	51% 7315-7060 (14375)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 14¢	$0.33	—	-$0.33	47% 10539-11781 (22320)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$1,768.03

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

24%

102-320 (422)

Venusian

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2,643.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$858.53

Record

53%

903-797 (1700)

MadridTime

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$3,029.67

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$747.52

Record

52%

812-758 (1570)

6512395314597884CTR

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$3,590.96

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

51%

4501-4377 (8878)

LightParadox

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2,430.44

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$248.16

Record

53%

889-775 (1664)

CandleHammerDrums

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2,859.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$432.96

Record

52%

6703-6224 (12927)

38791873984189

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,486.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$146.19

Record

48%

14349-15848 (30197)

thestingsnake

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$788.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$551.71

Record

60%

4211-2814 (7025)

Flaznorp

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$854.62

Value

$799.7

PnL

-$54.92

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

Limousin

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$911.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$245.62

Record

56%

921-721 (1642)

Eulhunter

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$599.38

Value

$877

PnL

+$271.59

Record

54%

6045-5051 (11096)

suntoriCTR

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$676.16

Value

—

PnL

-$676.16

Record

45%

13599-16524 (30123)

omnibus-076daa

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$391.79

Value

$480.84

PnL

+$89.08

Record

50%

20136-20479 (40615)

alpheclabs2

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$177.13

Value

$290.38

PnL

+$113.25

Record

47%

1097-1239 (2336)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$79.72

Value

$73.05

PnL

-$6.67

Record

52%

14108-12884 (26992)

Both legs:

Carlo Alberto Caniato$58.6780.3¢+$14.38

Lorenzo Giustino$21.0524.6¢-$21.05

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$26.8

Value

—

PnL

-$26.8

Record

50%

4082-4057 (8139)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$18.36

Value

—

PnL

-$18.36

Record

46%

8222-9595 (17817)

looppau<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$15.59

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

11831-75 (11906)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$7.63

Value

—

PnL

-$7.63

Record

61%

13921-8934 (22855)

VeryLucky888<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$16.55

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$3.53

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$4.59

Value

—

PnL

-$4.52

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

hydra1248<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$3.86

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.75

Record

65%

48-26 (74)

ameisgoat11<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$3.15

Value

PnL

+$1.82

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$1.77

Value

—

PnL

-$1.77

Record

51%

7315-7060 (14375)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$0.33

Record

47%

10539-11781 (22320)

Smart Money Signal

Carlo Alberto Caniato

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaec2cb45...f30182

Slug

atp-caniato-giustin-2026-11-02

Traders in this Market

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3

CTR

Lorenzo Giustino — $0

$-1.8K

Venusian

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $3.5K

+$858.53

MadridTime

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $3.8K

+$747.52

6512395314597884

CTR

Lorenzo Giustino — $0

$-3.6K

LightParadox

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $2.7K

+$248.16

CandleHammerDrums

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $1.4K

+$432.96

38791873984189

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $1.2K

-$146.19

thestingsnake

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $1.3K

+$551.71

Flaznorp

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $799.7

-$54.92

Limousin

Carlo Alberto Caniato — $1.2K

+$245.62

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