Taranto: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Kilian Feldbausch

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (52%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Carlo Alberto Caniato<1¢Kilian Feldbausch>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 100¢

+70% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

11 of 21 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Carlo Alberto Caniato0%

Kilian Feldbausch100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch11 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,873

Combined PnL+$648.07

Carlo Alberto Caniato10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares9,181

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Kilian Feldbausch — 52%Carlo Alberto Caniato — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlo Alberto Caniato) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKilian Feldbausch 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Kilian Feldbauschavg 53.8¢	$806.26	$1.4K	+$638.06	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
38 38791873984189	Kilian Feldbauschavg 74.3¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$130.24	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
VeryLucky888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 50.6¢	$935.28	$924.67	-$1.07	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 39.5¢	$768.46	$720.65	-$47.81	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 51.2¢	$336.43	$561.88	+$225.45
└ Carlo Alberto Caniato leg	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 39.5¢	$432.03	$158.77	-$273.26
VE VenusianCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 27.5¢	$1.7K	$665.16	$-1.0K	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0xheavy888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.8¢	$590.55	$565.34	-$25.21	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 24.8¢	$731.92	$408.03	-$323.89	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
TRCM	Kilian Feldbauschavg 60.9¢	$269.75	$343	+$73.25	55% 4079-3289 (7368)
1L 1lovejump	Kilian Feldbauschavg 77.9¢	$320.24	$308.92	-$11.32	53% 827-732 (1559)
LI Limousin	Kilian Feldbauschavg 56.5¢	$124.36	$217.05	+$92.7	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 42.3¢	$329.44	$213.55	-$115.89	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
nigiri99CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 47.6¢	$192.36	$199.98	+$8.6	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 28¢	$492.14	$102.87	-$389.27	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
MA MadridTime<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.6¢	$39.17	$37.76	-$1.41	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 46.4¢	$50.14	$26.38	-$23.62	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 61¢	$22.37	$22.65	+$0.28	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
PA pauleta23<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 67.3¢	$14	$19.98	+$5.98	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 54.5¢	$8.72	$15.77	+$7.05	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48¢	$88.95	$11.13	-$77.83	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 36.1¢	$17.8	$3.45	-$14.36	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
RN1CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 37¢	$3.96	$0.15	-$3.8	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 48¢	$2.4	$0.08	-$2.32	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

tradecraft

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$806.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$638.06

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

38791873984189

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,698.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$130.24

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

VeryLucky888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$935.28

Value

$924.67

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$768.46

Value

$720.65

PnL

-$47.81

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$336.4351.2¢+$225.45

Carlo Alberto Caniato$432.0339.5¢-$273.26

VenusianCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$1,691.02

Value

$665.16

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0xheavy888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$590.55

Value

$565.34

PnL

-$25.21

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

LightParadoxCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$731.92

Value

$408.03

PnL

-$323.89

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

TRCM

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$269.75

Value

$343

PnL

+$73.25

Record

55%

4079-3289 (7368)

1lovejump

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$320.24

Value

$308.92

PnL

-$11.32

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Limousin

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$124.36

Value

$217.05

PnL

+$92.7

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

FlaznorpCTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$329.44

Value

$213.55

PnL

-$115.89

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

nigiri99CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$192.36

Value

$199.98

PnL

+$8.6

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$492.14

Value

$102.87

PnL

-$389.27

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

MadridTime<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$39.17

Value

$37.76

PnL

-$1.41

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$50.14

Value

$26.38

PnL

-$23.62

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$22.37

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

pauleta23<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$14

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$5.98

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$8.72

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$7.05

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$88.95

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$77.83

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$17.8

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$14.36

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

RN1CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.32

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

11 of 21 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (5 on Carlo Alberto Caniato) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKilian Feldbausch 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Carlo Alberto Caniato 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.