Hersonissos 3: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Carlo Alberto Caniato (80%) · Carlo Alberto Caniato at 64¢ · $427 held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
Carlo Alberto Caniato
5
Carlo Alberto Caniato 80%
$427.22
-$2.35
63.2¢ → 63.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarlo Alberto Caniato at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Carlo Alberto Caniato. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 64¢ | $254.16 | $249.46 | -$4.7 | 35% 176-320 (496) |
 0xheavy888 | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62.3¢ | $103.35 | $104.56 | +$1.21 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62¢ | $50.22 | $51.03 | +$0.81 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Carlo Alberto Caniatoavg 62¢ | $11.11 | $11.29 | +$0.18 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 36¢ | $10.73 | $10.88 | +$0.15 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
Invested
$254.16
Value
$249.46
PnL
-$4.7
Record
35%
176-320 (496)
0xheavy888Invested
$103.35
Value
$104.56
PnL
+$1.21
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
Invested
$50.22
Value
$51.03
PnL
+$0.81
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$0.18
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.73
Value
$10.88
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.