Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Medvedev (57%) · Daniil Medvedev at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Daniil Medvedev
7
Daniil Medvedev 57%
$1.8K
$31.63
84.1¢ → 86.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniil Medvedev at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Daniil Medvedev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Daniil Medvedevavg 84¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$19.15 | 51% 23811-22567 (46378) |
38 38791873984189 | Daniil Medvedevavg 84.1¢ | $493.45 | $334.76 | +$13.31 | 48% 58721-62631 (121352) |
GC GC-PCTR | Ignacio Buseavg 14¢ | $132.64 | $132.64 | +$0 | 47% 1322-1513 (2835) |
NM NM-PCTR | Ignacio Buseavg 14¢ | $117.68 | $117.68 | -$0 | 46% 1298-1515 (2813) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Daniil Medvedevavg 85.9¢ | $65.87 | $66.32 | +$0.45 | 56% 7694-6169 (13863) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Ignacio Buseavg 14.6¢ | $39.43 | $36.45 | -$1.35 | 49% 3284-3391 (6675) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Daniil Medvedevavg 85¢ | $13.48 | $13.56 | +$0.08 | 50% 20420-20739 (41159) |
Invested
$1,072.19
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$19.15
Record
51%
23811-22567 (46378)
Invested
$493.45
Value
$334.76
PnL
+$13.31
Record
48%
58721-62631 (121352)
Invested
$132.64
Value
$132.64
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1322-1513 (2835)
Invested
$117.68
Value
$117.68
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
1298-1515 (2813)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$65.87
Value
$66.32
PnL
+$0.45
Record
56%
7694-6169 (13863)
Invested
$39.43
Value
$36.45
PnL
-$1.35
Record
49%
3284-3391 (6675)
Invested
$13.48
Value
$13.56
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
20420-20739 (41159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.