BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Mika Brunold vs Borna Gojo

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Borna Gojo (57%) · Borna Gojo at 63¢ · $483 held · ends Nov 14

Mika Brunold38¢Borna Gojo62¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Borna Gojo

Consensus Traders

Borna Gojo 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$482.9

Combined PnL

$23.33

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 62.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBorna Gojo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Borna Gojo

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mika Brunold38%

Borna Gojo63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Borna Gojo4 traders

Total Value$199.58

Total Shares320

Combined PnL+$19.76

Mika Brunold3 traders

Total Value$176.61

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$3.57

Borna Gojo — 57%Mika Brunold — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Borna Gojoavg 55.1¢	$135.29	$153.25	+$17.97	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mika Brunoldavg 38¢	$227.47	$120.16	+$4.43	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 59¢	$97.25	$106.71	+$9.46	49% 3277-3447 (6724)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 59¢	$73.25	$75.11	+$1.86
└ Mika Brunold leg	Mika Brunoldavg 30¢	$24	$31.6	+$7.6
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 41¢	$55.35	$54.68	-$0.67	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Borna Gojoavg 58¢	$19.33	$20.5	+$1.17	54% 6321-5389 (11710)
PA Pan9X<$100	Borna Gojoavg 60¢	$19.2	$19.68	+$0.48	54% 10438-8758 (19196)
EF efntrick<$100	Borna Gojoavg 60¢	$6	$6.15	+$0.15	48% 3686-3931 (7617)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 39.2¢	$1.96	$1.78	-$0.18	60% 4504-3005 (7509)

ferrariChampions2026

Borna Gojo

Invested

$135.29

Value

$153.25

PnL

+$17.97

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mika Brunold

Invested

$227.47

Value

$120.16

PnL

+$4.43

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$97.25

Value

$106.71

PnL

+$9.46

Record

49%

3277-3447 (6724)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$73.2559¢+$1.86

Mika Brunold$2430¢+$7.6

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$55.35

Value

$54.68

PnL

-$0.67

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

Eulhunter<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$19.33

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

6321-5389 (11710)

Pan9X<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

efntrick<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

3686-3931 (7617)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.18

Record

60%

4504-3005 (7509)

Research grade

NeutralBorna Gojo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Borna Gojo

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Borna Gojo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.