Lima: Tristan Boyer vs Max Alcala Gurri

11 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Boyer (48%) · Tristan Boyer at 77¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 20

Tristan Boyer77¢Max Alcala Gurri23¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan Boyer

Consensus Traders

Tristan Boyer 48%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 76.5¢

+54% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralTristan Boyer at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Boyer

11 of 23 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tristan Boyer77%

Max Alcala Gurri24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan Boyer11 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares16,312

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Max Alcala Gurri12 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,780

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Tristan Boyer — 48%Max Alcala Gurri — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Tristan Boyer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTristan Boyer 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMax Alcala Gurri 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedTristan Boyer 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Tristan Boyer 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 54.9¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$42.61	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 44.5¢	$3.2K	$4.2K	+$1.0K
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 54.9¢	$3.9K	$3.0K	-$960.92
65 6512395314597884	Tristan Boyeravg 46.5¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$735.09	50% 3673-3617 (7290)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tristan Boyeravg 59.6¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$475.22	44% 392-498 (890)
JU Justluck9	Tristan Boyeravg 45¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$512	7% 13-163 (176)
RN1	Tristan Boyeravg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$458.35	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 50.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$26	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 50¢	$525	$640.5	+$115.5
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 50.3¢	$629	$487.5	-$141.5
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 53.3¢	$891.2	$929.64	+$38.44	56% 3980-3112 (7092)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 53.3¢	$506.57	$689	+$182.43
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 44¢	$384.64	$240.64	-$143.99
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 49.2¢	$909.89	$875.12	-$34.77	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 49.2¢	$632.68	$482.59	-$150.09
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 44.1¢	$277.22	$392.53	+$115.32
tradecraftCTR	Max Alcala Gurriavg 55¢	$1.2K	$831.09	-$334.05	26% 250-705 (955)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Tristan Boyeravg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$450.17	+$112.24	48% 425-457 (882)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Max Alcala Gurriavg 48¢	$721.95	$413.62	-$308.33	35% 750-1386 (2136)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 47.1¢	$539.9	$390.25	+$120.41	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 47.1¢	$197.74	$257.99	+$79.88
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 35.1¢	$120.43	$132.26	+$40.53
MA MadridTimeCTR	Max Alcala Gurriavg 56¢	$494.63	$242.74	-$251.89	36% 763-1361 (2124)
OJ ojg	Tristan Boyeravg 72¢	$217.44	$218.95	+$1.51	47% 204-229 (433)
TH thirdt1me	Tristan Boyeravg 54.3¢	$632.08	$170.36	+$124.72	47% 214-243 (457)
VE VenusianCTR	Max Alcala Gurriavg 54¢	$302.43	$154.02	-$148.41	34% 736-1405 (2141)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Tristan Boyeravg 44¢	$99.44	$137.86	+$38.42	47% 191-212 (403)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 38.5¢	$229.03	$136.38	-$12.8	38% 113-184 (297)
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 38.5¢	$86.46	$84.33	-$25.71
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 47¢	$39.14	$52.05	+$12.91
BA babybellsARB<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 51¢	$129.25	$135.85	+$6.6	29% 187-458 (645)
└ Tristan Boyer leg	Tristan Boyeravg 51¢	$71.4	$81.9	+$10.5
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 44.5¢	$57.85	$53.95	-$3.9
LI LimousinCTR	Max Alcala Gurriavg 54¢	$235.26	$119.81	-$115.45	35% 736-1380 (2116)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 35¢	$35	$38.5	+$3.5	43% 312-419 (731)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 44.5¢	$32.98	$32.24	-$0.74	50% 169-168 (337)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 45¢	$13.95	$18.91	+$4.96	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Tristan Boyeravg 43.7¢	$13.55	$18.85	+$8.47	33% 204-421 (625)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 39.9¢	$16.51	$18.01	+$1.5	45% 871-1082 (1953)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$7,141.4

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$42.61

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$3,194.7844.5¢+$1.0K

Max Alcala Gurri$3,946.6154.9¢-$960.92

6512395314597884

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$2,357.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$735.09

Record

50%

3673-3617 (7290)

omnibus-076daa

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$2,188.85

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$475.22

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

Justluck9

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$1,439.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$512

Record

13-163 (176)

RN1

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$1,189.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$458.35

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

NotJumpARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$1,154

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$26

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$52550¢+$115.5

Max Alcala Gurri$62950.3¢-$141.5

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$891.2

Value

$929.64

PnL

+$38.44

Record

56%

3980-3112 (7092)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$506.5753.3¢+$182.43

Max Alcala Gurri$384.6444¢-$143.99

FlaznorpARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$909.89

Value

$875.12

PnL

-$34.77

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Max Alcala Gurri$632.6849.2¢-$150.09

Tristan Boyer$277.2244.1¢+$115.32

tradecraftCTR

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$1,165.14

Value

$831.09

PnL

-$334.05

Record

26%

250-705 (955)

CandleHammerDrums

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$1,066.47

Value

$450.17

PnL

+$112.24

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

LightParadoxCTR

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$721.95

Value

$413.62

PnL

-$308.33

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$539.9

Value

$390.25

PnL

+$120.41

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$197.7447.1¢+$79.88

Max Alcala Gurri$120.4335.1¢+$40.53

MadridTimeCTR

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$494.63

Value

$242.74

PnL

-$251.89

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

ojg

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$217.44

Value

$218.95

PnL

+$1.51

Record

47%

204-229 (433)

thirdt1me

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$632.08

Value

$170.36

PnL

+$124.72

Record

47%

214-243 (457)

VenusianCTR

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$302.43

Value

$154.02

PnL

-$148.41

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$99.44

Value

$137.86

PnL

+$38.42

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$229.03

Value

$136.38

PnL

-$12.8

Record

38%

113-184 (297)

Both legs:

Max Alcala Gurri$86.4638.5¢-$25.71

Tristan Boyer$39.1447¢+$12.91

babybellsARB<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$129.25

Value

$135.85

PnL

+$6.6

Record

29%

187-458 (645)

Both legs:

Tristan Boyer$71.451¢+$10.5

Max Alcala Gurri$57.8544.5¢-$3.9

LimousinCTR

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$235.26

Value

$119.81

PnL

-$115.45

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$35

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

43%

312-419 (731)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$32.98

Value

$32.24

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

169-168 (337)

Pan9X<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$13.95

Value

$18.91

PnL

+$4.96

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

thestingsnake<$100

Tristan Boyer

Invested

$13.55

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$8.47

Record

33%

204-421 (625)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$16.51

Value

$18.01

PnL

+$1.5

Record

45%

871-1082 (1953)

Research grade

NeutralTristan Boyer at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Boyer

11 of 23 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on Tristan Boyer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTristan Boyer 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMax Alcala Gurri 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedTristan Boyer 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Tristan Boyer 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan Boyer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.