Brisbane 3: Moerani Bouzige vs Christopher O'Connell

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Christopher O'Connell (83%) · Christopher O'Connell at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Moerani Bouzige6¢Christopher O'Connell94¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Christopher O'Connell

Consensus Traders

Christopher O'Connell 83%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$60.77

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateChristopher O'Connell at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Christopher O'Connell

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Moerani Bouzige6%

Christopher O'Connell95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Christopher O'Connell15 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,627

Combined PnL+$46

Moerani Bouzige3 traders

Total Value$105.34

Total Shares728

Combined PnL+$14.77

Christopher O'Connell — 83%Moerani Bouzige — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Christopher O'Connell. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpChristopher O'Connell 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChristopher O'Connell 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedChristopher O'Connell 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Christopher O'Connell 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Christopher O'Connellavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.38	43% 131-176 (307)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Christopher O'Connellavg 83¢	$707.01	$730.27	+$23.26	28% 121-308 (429)
LI Limousin	Christopher O'Connellavg 85.1¢	$331.66	$368.44	+$36.78	26% 127-363 (490)
0xheavy888	Christopher O'Connellavg 87.9¢	$196.23	$181.95	-$14.28	69% 34-15 (49)
VE Venusian	Christopher O'Connellavg 93.9¢	$174.09	$175.22	+$1.13	27% 128-350 (478)
FL Flaznorp	Christopher O'Connellavg 82¢	$166.79	$165.6	-$1.2	53% 330-294 (624)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Christopher O'Connellavg 85.8¢	$154.54	$157.89	+$3.35	37% 50-86 (136)
38 38791873984189	Christopher O'Connellavg 86¢	$137.07	$68.68	+$19.72	49% 427-449 (876)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Moerani Bouzigeavg 11.8¢	$59.16	$64.94	+$31.28	33% 34-68 (102)
BA babybells<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 85¢	$55.25	$52.97	-$1.63	21% 47-172 (219)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 86.6¢	$47.65	$51.97	+$4.32	13% 40-279 (319)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 83¢	$35.69	$35.04	-$0.65	55% 41-33 (74)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Moerani Bouzigeavg 13¢	$28.76	$28.01	-$0.76	26% 121-344 (465)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 89.6¢	$27.46	$25.65	-$2.21	23% 43-145 (188)
PA Pan9X<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 86¢	$20.21	$19.15	-$1.06	49% 193-198 (391)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Moerani Bouzigeavg 12.5¢	$28.14	$12.4	-$15.74	28% 130-331 (461)
SE sentrio<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 87¢	$7.38	$7.43	+$0.05	28% 99-254 (353)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Christopher O'Connellavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.07	-$0.23	18% 55-248 (303)

6512395314597884

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$1,182.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.38

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$707.01

Value

$730.27

PnL

+$23.26

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

Limousin

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$331.66

Value

$368.44

PnL

+$36.78

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

0xheavy888

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$196.23

Value

$181.95

PnL

-$14.28

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

Venusian

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$174.09

Value

$175.22

PnL

+$1.13

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

Flaznorp

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$166.79

Value

$165.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$154.54

Value

$157.89

PnL

+$3.35

Record

37%

50-86 (136)

38791873984189

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$137.07

Value

$68.68

PnL

+$19.72

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Moerani Bouzige

Invested

$59.16

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$31.28

Record

33%

34-68 (102)

babybells<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$55.25

Value

$52.97

PnL

-$1.63

Record

21%

47-172 (219)

BillBenter2026<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$47.65

Value

$51.97

PnL

+$4.32

Record

13%

40-279 (319)

Eulhunter<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$35.69

Value

$35.04

PnL

-$0.65

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Moerani Bouzige

Invested

$28.76

Value

$28.01

PnL

-$0.76

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

thestingsnake<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$27.46

Value

$25.65

PnL

-$2.21

Record

23%

43-145 (188)

Pan9X<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$20.21

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Moerani Bouzige

Invested

$28.14

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$15.74

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

sentrio<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

99-254 (353)

ameisgoat11<$100

Christopher O'Connell

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.23

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

Research candidateChristopher O'Connell at 95%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Christopher O'Connell

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Christopher O'Connell. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpChristopher O'Connell 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChristopher O'Connell 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedChristopher O'Connell 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Christopher O'Connell 78% · 18

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Christopher O'Connell wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.