Orleans: Benjamin Bonzi vs Andrea Pellegrino
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Bonzi (100%) · Benjamin Bonzi at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
Benjamin Bonzi
6
Benjamin Bonzi 100%
$1.4K
$22.33
89.2¢ → 91.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralBenjamin Bonzi at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Benjamin Bonzi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Benjamin Bonziavg 89¢ | $923.59 | $939.16 | +$15.57 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Benjamin Bonziavg 90¢ | $180.27 | $183.38 | +$3.11 | — |
EF efntrick | Benjamin Bonziavg 89.4¢ | $143.57 | $145.38 | +$1.81 | — |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Benjamin Bonziavg 89.5¢ | $89.93 | $91.96 | +$1.03 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Benjamin Bonziavg 89¢ | $45 | $40.73 | +$0.68 | — |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Benjamin Bonziavg 89¢ | $8.9 | $9.05 | +$0.15 | — |
Invested
$923.59
Value
$939.16
PnL
+$15.57
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$180.27
Value
$183.38
PnL
+$3.11
Record
—
Invested
$143.57
Value
$145.38
PnL
+$1.81
Record
—
Invested
$89.93
Value
$91.96
PnL
+$1.03
Record
—
Invested
$45
Value
$40.73
PnL
+$0.68
Record
—
Invested
$8.9
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.