Orleans: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tom Gentzsch

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Bonzi (75%) · Benjamin Bonzi at 56¢ · $62K held · ends Nov 18

Benjamin Bonzi56¢Tom Gentzsch44¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benjamin Bonzi

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Bonzi 75%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.1K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 56.5¢

-30% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Bonzi at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Bonzi

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Benjamin Bonzi56%

Tom Gentzsch44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benjamin Bonzi12 traders

Total Value$39.9K

Total Shares63,833

Combined PnL$-12.6K

Tom Gentzsch4 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares37,993

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Benjamin Bonzi — 75%Tom Gentzsch — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on Benjamin Bonzi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Benjamin Bonzi 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Benjamin Bonziavg 77.2¢	$11.1K	$10.9K	-$182.23	53% 1830-1635 (3465)
MA MadridTime	Benjamin Bonziavg 82¢	$15.4K	$10.6K	$-4.8K	31% 388-857 (1245)
AC Accomplished-FrameworkCTR	Tom Gentzschavg 27.7¢	$6.3K	$9.9K	+$3.6K	— 8-9 (17)
LI Limousin	Benjamin Bonziavg 82.2¢	$12.2K	$8.4K	$-3.8K	30% 383-882 (1265)
RN1ARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 72.7¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$50.05	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 72.7¢	$5.5K	$4.3K	$-1.2K
└ Tom Gentzsch leg	Tom Gentzschavg 18¢	$897.84	$2.2K	+$1.3K
VE Venusian	Benjamin Bonziavg 82.7¢	$8.5K	$5.8K	$-2.7K	31% 393-875 (1268)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Tom Gentzschavg 17.8¢	$1.8K	$3.8K	+$2.2K	42% 117-161 (278)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Tom Gentzschavg 18.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$125.52	50% 3298-3251 (6549)
EU Eulhunter	Benjamin Bonziavg 81.4¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$458.73	50% 111-109 (220)
FL Flaznorp	Benjamin Bonziavg 74.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$19.09	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
TH thestingsnake	Benjamin Bonziavg 82.1¢	$1.2K	$830.55	-$376.2	26% 131-380 (511)
LI LightParadox	Benjamin Bonziavg 83.5¢	$1.1K	$731.52	-$301.11	30% 384-878 (1262)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 17.6¢	$1.2K	$462.67	+$229.04	48% 1398-1531 (2929)
└ Tom Gentzsch leg	Tom Gentzschavg 17.6¢	$226.75	$353.39	+$223.05
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 81¢	$122.09	$109.28	+$5.99
machinelearned	Benjamin Bonziavg 78¢	$351	$326.25	-$24.75	40% 541-815 (1356)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Benjamin Bonziavg 82.1¢	$259.94	$261.71	+$1.77	56% 3862-3028 (6890)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 76.3¢	$159.47	$116.1	+$35.41	24% 130-413 (543)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 76.3¢	$80.09	$59.32	-$17.32
└ Tom Gentzsch leg	Tom Gentzschavg 17¢	$22.19	$56.77	+$52.73
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 81¢	$79.18	$80.48	+$1.31	52% 471-435 (906)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 81¢	$52.86	$54.17	+$1.31
└ Tom Gentzsch leg	Tom Gentzschavg 17¢	$26.32	$26.32	-$0
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 33¢	$37.29	$49.16	+$11.87	42% 132-182 (314)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 84.8¢	$9.33	$6.22	-$3.12	23% 150-496 (646)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.15	+$0.1	33% 307-625 (932)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$11,053.28

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$182.23

Record

53%

1830-1635 (3465)

MadridTime

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$15,364.11

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

Accomplished-FrameworkCTR

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$6,317.49

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

—

8-9 (17)

Limousin

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$12,214.84

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

30%

383-882 (1265)

RN1ARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$6,391.91

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$50.05

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$5,494.0772.7¢$-1.2K

Tom Gentzsch$897.8418¢+$1.3K

Venusian

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$8,478.15

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

31%

393-875 (1268)

thirdt1meCTR

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$1,837.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

42%

117-161 (278)

6512395314597884CTR

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$1,198.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$125.52

Record

50%

3298-3251 (6549)

Eulhunter

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$1,501.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$458.73

Record

50%

111-109 (220)

Flaznorp

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$1,059.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$19.09

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

thestingsnake

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$1,206.75

Value

$830.55

PnL

-$376.2

Record

26%

131-380 (511)

LightParadox

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$1,087.2

Value

$731.52

PnL

-$301.11

Record

30%

384-878 (1262)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$1,205.5

Value

$462.67

PnL

+$229.04

Record

48%

1398-1531 (2929)

Both legs:

Tom Gentzsch$226.7517.6¢+$223.05

Benjamin Bonzi$122.0981¢+$5.99

machinelearned

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$351

Value

$326.25

PnL

-$24.75

Record

40%

541-815 (1356)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$259.94

Value

$261.71

PnL

+$1.77

Record

56%

3862-3028 (6890)

babybellsARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$159.47

Value

$116.1

PnL

+$35.41

Record

24%

130-413 (543)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$80.0976.3¢-$17.32

Tom Gentzsch$22.1917¢+$52.73

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$79.18

Value

$80.48

PnL

+$1.31

Record

52%

471-435 (906)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$52.8681¢+$1.31

Tom Gentzsch$26.3217¢-$0

ojgCTR<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$37.29

Value

$49.16

PnL

+$11.87

Record

42%

132-182 (314)

BillBenter2026<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$9.33

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$3.12

Record

23%

150-496 (646)

ameisgoat11<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

307-625 (932)

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Bonzi at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Bonzi

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on Benjamin Bonzi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Benjamin Bonzi 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Bonzi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.