Monastir: Federico Bondioli vs Jonas Forejtek

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (59%) · Jonas Forejtek at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Federico Bondioli16¢Jonas Forejtek84¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$314.71

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 84.5¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Federico Bondioli16%

Jonas Forejtek85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek10 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,827

Combined PnL+$368.48

Federico Bondioli7 traders

Total Value$234.69

Total Shares1,265

Combined PnL-$53.77

Jonas Forejtek — 59%Federico Bondioli — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Jonas Forejtekavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$117.93	24% 205-638 (843)
TH thirdt1me	Jonas Forejtekavg 67.1¢	$658.36	$803.92	+$150.3	34% 57-112 (169)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 31.3¢	$1.1K	$672.65	-$194.82	25% 203-621 (824)
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 74.5¢	$381.46	$437.89	+$77.35
└ Federico Bondioli leg	Federico Bondioliavg 31.3¢	$506.93	$234.76	-$272.18
38 38791873984189	Jonas Forejtekavg 71¢	$429.62	$497.62	+$68	48% 752-814 (1566)
BA babybells	Jonas Forejtekavg 62.5¢	$162.4	$165.1	+$2.7	15% 65-357 (422)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Federico Bondioliavg 21.1¢	$167.73	$159.04	-$8.69	51% 3157-3056 (6213)
LI Limousin	Jonas Forejtekavg 66.2¢	$124.23	$139.98	+$28.8	24% 201-643 (844)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 70¢	$98	$97.3	-$0.7	34% 164-316 (480)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 37¢	$92.35	$89.4	-$2.95	24% 202-633 (835)
└ Federico Bondioli leg	Federico Bondioliavg 37¢	$68.08	$65.32	-$2.76
└ Jonas Forejtek leg	Jonas Forejtekavg 65¢	$24.27	$24.08	-$0.19
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 67¢	$58.98	$57.84	-$1.14	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 78.6¢	$31.43	$34.2	+$2.77	12% 59-453 (512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 66¢	$32.31	$31.82	-$0.49	48% 407-443 (850)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$24	$24.75	+$0.75	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 65¢	$32.73	$22.98	+$0.3	48% 215-230 (445)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 35¢	$51.24	$22.72	-$28.52	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 36.5¢	$30.8	$13.08	-$17.72	20% 100-409 (509)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$8	$8.25	+$0.25	65% 149-82 (231)
dips.CTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 16¢	$5.69	$5.87	+$0.18	42% 189-263 (452)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Federico Bondioliavg 36¢	$1	$0.99	-$0.01	4% 19-407 (426)

Venusian

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1,265.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$117.93

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

thirdt1me

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$658.36

Value

$803.92

PnL

+$150.3

Record

34%

57-112 (169)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$1,127.48

Value

$672.65

PnL

-$194.82

Record

25%

203-621 (824)

Both legs:

Jonas Forejtek$381.4674.5¢+$77.35

Federico Bondioli$506.9331.3¢-$272.18

38791873984189

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$429.62

Value

$497.62

PnL

+$68

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

babybells

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$162.4

Value

$165.1

PnL

+$2.7

Record

15%

65-357 (422)

6512395314597884CTR

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$167.73

Value

$159.04

PnL

-$8.69

Record

51%

3157-3056 (6213)

Limousin

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$124.23

Value

$139.98

PnL

+$28.8

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$98

Value

$97.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$92.35

Value

$89.4

PnL

-$2.95

Record

24%

202-633 (835)

Both legs:

Federico Bondioli$68.0837¢-$2.76

Jonas Forejtek$24.2765¢-$0.19

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$58.98

Value

$57.84

PnL

-$1.14

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$31.43

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$2.77

Record

12%

59-453 (512)

Pan9X<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$32.31

Value

$31.82

PnL

-$0.49

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$24

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$32.73

Value

$22.98

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$51.24

Value

$22.72

PnL

-$28.52

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$30.8

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$17.72

Record

20%

100-409 (509)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

65%

149-82 (231)

dips.CTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$0.18

Record

42%

189-263 (452)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Federico Bondioli

Invested

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

19-407 (426)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

10 of 17 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.