Metz: Matisse Bobichon vs Ugo Blanchet

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Blanchet (74%) · Ugo Blanchet at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Matisse Bobichon14¢Ugo Blanchet86¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Ugo Blanchet

Consensus Traders

Ugo Blanchet 74%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$56.31

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 85.5¢

+13% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateUgo Blanchet at 86%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matisse Bobichon14%

Ugo Blanchet86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Blanchet14 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,073

Combined PnL-$3.79

Matisse Bobichon5 traders

Total Value$106.77

Total Shares971

Combined PnL-$52.52

Ugo Blanchet — 74%Matisse Bobichon — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Blanchet. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUgo Blanchet 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUgo Blanchet 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Blanchet 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Blanchet 68% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Ugo Blanchetavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	+$8.44	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
FL Flaznorp	Ugo Blanchetavg 89¢	$856.96	$857.3	+$0.34	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
LI Limousin	Ugo Blanchetavg 92.2¢	$517.62	$504.22	-$13.39	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
TH thirdt1me	Ugo Blanchetavg 89¢	$364.51	$367.54	+$3.03	48% 372-408 (780)
BA babybells	Ugo Blanchetavg 86.9¢	$284	$294.88	+$10.88	34% 268-521 (789)
SU suntori	Ugo Blanchetavg 87.9¢	$285.7	$277.86	-$7.84	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 15.5¢	$73.73	$52.2	-$21.53	48% 630-669 (1299)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 92¢	$56.63	$52.15	-$4.48	46% 631-739 (1370)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 85.8¢	$53.21	$45.38	+$2.16	36% 252-449 (701)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 14¢	$41.94	$32.87	-$9.07	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
LI LightParadox<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 88¢	$24.63	$22.57	-$2.06	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 90¢	$18	$17.1	-$0.9	33% 300-622 (922)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 26¢	$35.14	$14.86	-$20.27	48% 471-508 (979)
TRCM<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 91¢	$10.11	$9.89	-$0.22	18% 99-458 (557)
PA pauleta23<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 93¢	$10	$9.57	-$0.43	43% 560-757 (1317)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 73¢	$5.85	$5.7	-$0.15	43% 855-1138 (1993)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 13.6¢	$5.74	$4.63	-$1.11	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
38 38791873984189<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 71¢	$2.82	$3.65	+$0.83	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 13.8¢	$2.75	$2.2	-$0.55	46% 472-559 (1031)

NotJump

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,923.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.44

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Flaznorp

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$856.96

Value

$857.3

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Limousin

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$517.62

Value

$504.22

PnL

-$13.39

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

thirdt1me

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$364.51

Value

$367.54

PnL

+$3.03

Record

48%

372-408 (780)

babybells

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$284

Value

$294.88

PnL

+$10.88

Record

34%

268-521 (789)

suntori

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$285.7

Value

$277.86

PnL

-$7.84

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$73.73

Value

$52.2

PnL

-$21.53

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$56.63

Value

$52.15

PnL

-$4.48

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

thestingsnake<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$53.21

Value

$45.38

PnL

+$2.16

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$41.94

Value

$32.87

PnL

-$9.07

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

LightParadox<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$24.63

Value

$22.57

PnL

-$2.06

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

BillBenter2026<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$18

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

33%

300-622 (922)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$35.14

Value

$14.86

PnL

-$20.27

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

TRCM<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$10.11

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.22

Record

18%

99-458 (557)

pauleta23<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$10

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0.43

Record

43%

560-757 (1317)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

855-1138 (1993)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$5.74

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

38791873984189<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

Research grade

Research candidateUgo Blanchet at 86%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Blanchet. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUgo Blanchet 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUgo Blanchet 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Blanchet 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Blanchet 68% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Blanchet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.